Scientists are keeping a close eye on the Axial Seamount, an underwater volcano off the Oregon coast. Initially, they thought it might erupt sometime in late 2025. However, new predictions suggest it could actually blow in mid-to-late 2026.
Axial Seamount is part of the Juan de Fuca Ridge and is the most active underwater volcano in the Northeast Pacific. It has erupted several times, most recently in 2015. Each eruption is preceded by a series of seismic activity and a gradual uplift of the ground as magma builds up beneath the surface.
Bill Chadwick, a geology professor at Oregon State University, has been studying this volcano for years. He points out that the inflation rate has changed since the last eruption. After a steady rise, it slowed down by summer 2023. But come fall, the inflation and seismic activity picked up again, indicating a change in the magma supply. Chadwick believes this could set the stage for a future eruption.
As of late 2024, the ground had reached about 95% of the inflation level seen before the 2015 eruption. But the inflation rates slowed down again by April 2025. In a blog update on October 27, Chadwick confirmed the timeline was pushed back, suggesting that the volcano won’t hit the critical inflation mark until 2026.
A fascinating aspect of Axial is its behavior compared to Iceland’s Krafla volcano. Each eruption requires slightly more uplift, around 12 inches (30 cm) more than the previous one. This builds an interesting pattern for researchers. They’ve noted that, at present, the ground is about 4 inches (10 cm) higher than it was prior to the 2015 event. An additional 8 inches could be needed for the next explosion.
Chadwick notes that predicting inflation and eruptions isn’t straightforward. “It’s mostly educated guesswork,” he says. However, new physics-based models might enhance accuracy. These models analyze past data and aim to predict future eruptions more effectively. Chadwick and his team are testing this model with real-time data, hoping to improve their forecasts.
In this era of technology, monitoring volcanic activity has improved dramatically. With real-time data on inflation rates and seismic activity, we can better understand what might happen next. Predictions may still have uncertainties, but the advancements in research are promising.
The journey of Axial Seamount and its impending eruption is a powerful reminder of nature’s unpredictable forces. It showcases not just the scientific methods we use to study such phenomena but also the incredible power beneath our oceans.
