Oregon’s Greenhouse Gas Goals Delayed: State Set to Miss 2035 Target by 2 Years, New Report Reveals

Oregon is set to miss its 2035 greenhouse gas emissions reduction target by two years. This isn’t just a minor hiccup; new data highlights a gap of around 5 million metric tons between current projections and target goals. To put that into perspective, that’s like adding 1.1 million extra cars on the road.

The rise in data centers and the end of federal vehicle emissions standards are two main culprits. Alan Zelenka from the Oregon Department of Energy points out that these factors have shifted the state’s trajectory. “We’re now seeing a gap in 2035 compared to our earlier expectations,” Zelenka explained.

The Oregon Climate Action Commission has established a consultation period until October 31 for public input on this issue. This advisory group has 35 members, with 13 appointed by the governor.

Oregon’s vision to nearly eliminate its greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 has faced challenges from the get-go. A previous TIGHGER report revealed the state failed to meet its 2020 climate goal by 13%. Three years later, projections predicted a brighter future—if existing climate policies, like the Climate Protection Program and House Bill 2021, were successfully implemented. These two initiatives are critical, accounting for approximately 97% of expected carbon reductions. They target the state’s largest fossil fuel emitters.

While implementation of the Climate Protection Program faced delays due to legal issues, the overall goal remains intact. Zelenka and his team assumed that if these programs remain in place, they could still meet their targets despite the challenges. He mentioned, “Until these programs are dead or repealed, we assume they will be effective.”

However, the cessation of federal fuel efficiency standards complicates matters. Transportation is responsible for about 35% of Oregon’s emissions, making it a significant area of concern. Zelenka remains hopeful, stating, “It makes our job harder, but it doesn’t make it impossible.”

Moving forward, Oregon needs to adopt additional policies beyond what’s already in place. Catherine Macdonald, chair of the Oregon Climate Action Commission, emphasizes the importance of adapting the strategy based on shifting forecasts. “This analysis is essential for shaping our recommendations for the legislature next fall.”

The latest insights from the TIGHGER 2.0 analysis aim to realign Oregon with its climate goals. The next phase will be released early next year, and though the path appears rocky, there’s still hope for a turnaround.

For further insights into Oregon’s greenhouse gas policies, you can refer to the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality’s resources here.

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Environment | Greenhouse Gases | Carbon | Science & Environment