New research suggests that New Zealand might experience up to 20% more rainfall in certain areas by the end of the century. This increase is linked to more intense and frequent atmospheric rivers, a phenomenon described as "rivers in the sky" that bring concentrated moisture from the tropics and sub-tropics.
A study conducted by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), led by research assistant Felix Goddard, highlights these projections under high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The research indicates that the contribution of atmospheric rivers to total annual rainfall could rise significantly, especially along the west coast of the South Island, which already sees the most impact from these weather patterns.
Dr. Peter Gibson, a climate scientist at NIWA and co-author of the study, noted that atmospheric rivers have already caused severe flooding in New Zealand. He pointed to significant events like the West Coast flooding that damaged the Waiho Bridge in March 2019 and the widespread flooding in Westport in July 2021. These incidents remind us of how vulnerable communities can be to heavy precipitation events.
Experts attribute the possible increase in atmospheric rivers to two main factors. First, a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor, enhancing the potential for heavy rainfall. Second, changes in wind patterns, particularly the westerly jet stream, may lead to more frequent and intense atmospheric rivers impacting New Zealand.
With these changes, some areas could see significant hikes in annual rainfall. The current projections utilized advanced climate models that analyze historical data and predict future trends. This effort involved substantial computing power and collaboration between NIWA and the Ministry for the Environment.
Understanding these shifts is crucial for New Zealand as it prepares for potential climate-related risks. Enhanced knowledge of future weather patterns will help communities adapt, ensuring better decision-making and resilience against extreme weather events. As researchers continue to study these climatic changes, New Zealanders will gain a clearer picture of what lies ahead in terms of rain patterns and climate impacts.
For those interested in the broader implications, you can read more on climate change projections from NIWA here.
Check out this related article: Oregon and Nine Other States Achieve 2013 Vision: 3.3 Million Electric Vehicles on the Road by 2025!
Source linkenvironment,climate-change
