A new study reveals that the next ice age could start in about 11,000 years if we don’t change our emissions. An ice age is a time when temperatures drop significantly, causing ice to cover large parts of the Earth.
Scientists have been investigating how the Earth’s orbit around the sun and the tilt of its axis affect long-term climate patterns. Serbian scientist Milutin Milankovitch proposed over a century ago that these changes, known as Milankovitch cycles, influence our climate.
This research looked at how the Earth’s orbit changes shape, tilts, and wobbles over time, leading to cycles of warming and cooling roughly every 100,000 years. The researchers examined climate data spanning 900,000 years by analyzing ice sheets and deep ocean temperatures.
Stephen Barker, a professor at Cardiff University, led the study. He mentioned that linking small orbital changes to significant climate events has been a challenge for scientists in the past. They discovered that the Earth experiences cycles of ice ages and warm periods. The last ice age ended around 11,700 years ago, highlighting a connection between Earth’s orbit and climate shifts.
Despite these insights, accurately dating when climate changes occurred remains difficult. Barker’s team opted to focus on gradual temperature changes over long periods rather than just short-term variations between warm and cold phases. He mentioned, “We would expect a glaciation to occur within the next 11,000 years, ending in about 66,000 years.”
Co-author Lorraine Lisiecki, from the University of California, Santa Barbara, emphasized that climate changes over these vast timescales are not random. The team plans to further investigate how human activities could impact these natural climate cycles as global emissions continue to rise.
These findings help us understand the Earth’s complex climate system and the potential future scenarios we may face as our planet continues to change. Understanding these cycles can be crucial for making informed decisions about our environment.
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Source linkLessons of the Day, Science & Technology
