Revolutionizing Weather Prediction: Meet the Palakkad Scientist Driving India’s Bharat Forecast System

As India grapples with erratic weather—from sudden floods to long droughts—its meteorology just got a major boost. The country recently introduced the Bharat Forecast System (BFS), a cutting-edge weather forecasting model created by scientists at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) in Pune. This new system sharpens resolution from 12 km to an impressive 6 km, allowing for much more precise forecasts.

One of the key players behind this innovation is A G Prajeesh, a native of Palakkad. Joining IITM in 2011, he became part of a vital team spearheaded by Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay. Their mission? To develop a system that can better predict the severe weather patterns affecting India. Prajeesh noted that events like the devastating 2018 Kerala floods spurred the urgency for better forecasting tools.

BFS represents a significant upgrade from the previously used Global Forecast System (GFS), primarily based in the US. While BFS is not entirely new, it’s an improvement tailored to India’s unique climate challenges. “Now, it can operate at finer resolutions, outperforming systems used by countries like the UK and US,” Prajeesh explained.

The benefits of BFS could be enormous. According to the Ministry of Earth Sciences, this technology will enable hyper-local forecasts that could help every village in India. Union Minister Dr. Jitendra Singh emphasized that BFS could reduce crop losses and improve the prediction of extreme weather, claiming a 30% improvement in extreme rainfall forecasts.

However, there are challenges. Some aspects of tropical weather systems remain unpredictable. "In countries with more stable weather, forecasts can be very accurate," Prajeesh pointed out. "In India, where conditions change rapidly, it’s harder to make reliable forecasts."

Real-time data is vital for accuracy, and the BFS model integrates information from various sources, including radars and satellites. Yet, Prajeesh noted the need for better infrastructure and trained personnel to collect this data effectively.

Another critical issue is how forecasts are communicated. “Forecasts need to be understandable for everyone—from farmers to casual walkers,” he said. Different users have different needs, so the message has to be tailored accordingly.

The unpredictability of weather patterns is a growing concern. Prajeesh warned that extreme weather events, such as heavy rains followed by droughts, will only become more intense in the future. "We need to rethink how we live and adapt," he remarked.

Turning to his background, Prajeesh has an extensive educational history, with degrees in Physics and Oceanography. His experience in atmospheric science has taken him to work in Saudi Arabia, underlining the global relevance of his expertise.

Interestingly, the BFS launch stirred some controversy. Dr. Jitendra Singh credited an all-women team for the project, which led to disagreements. Project lead Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay emphasized that the team’s achievements were collective and not limited to any specific group.

While BFS is a significant step forward in weather forecasting, the drama surrounding its launch highlights the ongoing issues within India’s scientific landscape. As Prajeesh stated, misrepresentation can demotivate researchers and undermine the integrity of the scientific community.

In summary, the BFS model brings advancements in accuracy and efficiency. It shows potential for improving predictions of heavy rainfall and managing weather events in India’s diverse climatic regions. As this technology develops, the country faces both an opportunity and a challenge: adopting new tools while ensuring they are used appropriately and fairly.

For more on the advancements in meteorology and their impacts, visit the Ministry of Earth Sciences.

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