Saudi Arabia recently bombed Mukalla, a port city in Yemen, targeting a shipment of weapons from the UAE intended for separatist forces. This act has escalated tensions in a region crucial for global trade. The UAE, responding to the situation, announced its plans to withdraw forces from Yemen.
In a significant shift, the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which is backed by the UAE, has taken control of most of the provinces of Hadramout and Mahra, including vital oil facilities. The STC is a prominent group advocating for southern Yemen’s independence, and its recent advances could change the political landscape in Yemen.
The conflict in Yemen has persisted for over a decade, fueled by deep-rooted sectarian strife and the involvement of multiple regional powers. The Iran-aligned Houthis control the capital, Sanaa, while a coalition led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE supports the government in the south. The war has resulted in a massive humanitarian crisis, but violence had gradually lessened since 2022 as the warring factions reached an uneasy stalemate.
The roots of this war trace back to 2014, when the Houthis advanced from their stronghold in the north, capturing the capital and forcing the government into exile. In 2015, Saudi Arabia and the UAE intervened to restore that government. Surprisingly, now the STC and the recognized government forces find themselves at odds despite being part of the same coalition against the Houthis.
The STC emerged in 2017 as a coalition seeking to reinstate South Yemen as an independent state, reminiscent of its status from 1967 to 1990. This new power dynamics put the STC in a stronger position to negotiate in any future peace talks, especially since they are calling for southern Yemen to exercise self-determination.
Recently, STC forces captured major facilities in Hadramout, including Yemen’s largest oil company, PetroMasila, after brief clashes with the government forces. This event has intensified the competition between various factions, showcasing the fragility of Yemen’s political landscape. Even Saudi Arabia’s withdrawal from military bases in Aden signifies a shift in strategy, possibly aimed at reducing hostilities.
In response to the STC’s advances, Saudi Arabia launched airstrikes in Hadramout, perceived as a warning for the separatists to retreat. Nonetheless, this escalation could unravel the relative calm that Yemen experienced in recent years, particularly after the Houthis had reached a ceasefire agreement with Saudi Arabia that ceased attacks on both sides.
Current events highlight growing tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who are often aligned on regional issues but diverging on Yemen’s political direction. The UAE emphasized that the governance of Yemen should be determined by its people, a clear call for internal dialogue amid the chaos.
As Yemen stands on the brink of deeper conflict, the stakes are high. The ongoing tensions threaten not only Yemen’s stability but also the security of shipping routes in the crucial Red Sea area, which could have far-reaching implications for international trade and regional peace.
For a deeper understanding of Yemen’s complex conflict, consider reading the recent report from the International Crisis Group that delves into the historical context and possible pathways to peace.
