Labor is set to announce a new greenhouse gas emissions reduction target for 2035, ahead of the United Nations climate summit in Brazil this November. Climate scientists and environmental groups are urging a significant cut of 75% from 2005 emissions by 2035, with a goal of net-zero by 2030. However, skepticism remains about whether these targets will lead to genuine emissions reductions.
Currently, Australia aims for a 43% drop in emissions by 2030 and net-zero by 2050. Many experts believe these targets are insufficient. Polly Hemming from The Australia Institute has highlighted concerns over how the government tracks its progress, suggesting it can sometimes feel like “cooking the books.”
One major issue is that the government’s calculations focus solely on domestic emissions, ignoring the greenhouse gases produced from the fossil fuels it exports. Australia ranks as the third-largest fossil fuel exporter globally, following Russia and the U.S. It’s also the second-largest source of fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions due to its coal exports, according to research from Professor Bill Hare of Murdoch University.
While the Department of Climate Change and Energy reported a 27% reduction in domestic emissions since 2005, experts say this figure relies heavily on questionable estimates, especially regarding changes in land use. Dr. Emma Lovell from the University of New South Wales points out that without accounting for land use, emissions have only dropped about 3% since 2005.
Concerning trends continue, as emissions from stationary energy, transportation, and industrial processes have increased, and a new emissions inventory due this month will provide further insight. However, reports indicate that Labor is delaying the release of crucial analysis due to alarming findings regarding heat-related deaths, coastal flooding, and agricultural impacts.
Data released in June indicates that if emissions continue at the current rate, a 1.5°C rise in global temperatures is likely within three years, a detrimental prospect for climate stability. Australia’s ongoing approval of new fossil fuel projects further complicates its climate responsibilities and contributes to global emissions.
The impact on daily life is stark. The Climate Council reports that climate disasters cost the Australian economy $2.2 billion in just the first half of 2025. Furthermore, around 80,000 properties have become uninsurable since 1990 due to climate risks, and farmers have experienced a 23% decline in annual profits since 2000 as a result of climate change.
Public sentiment reflects growing concern. A recent YouGov poll revealed that 77% of Australians support government action to mitigate extreme weather risks. While about four million households have installed solar panels, many poorer households and renters miss out on these benefits, highlighting a need for affordable, sustainable housing solutions.
Despite this demand for action, the government continues to back large fossil fuel projects, like the expansion of Woodside’s Burrup hub, which could produce emissions exceeding those of Australia’s entire coal power sector. In 2024-2025, federal and state governments allocated $14.9 billion in subsidies to fossil fuel companies, indicating a troubling commitment to maintaining the fossil fuel status quo.
As climate-related challenges grow, many advocate for a shift toward renewable energy and more sustainable housing. The urgency for a comprehensive and honest approach to climate change is clear, underscoring the need for effective policies that prioritize the environment and public welfare.
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