Scientists Warn: Extreme Heat Could Claim 30,000 Lives Annually in England and Wales by 2070

Researchers warn that by the 2070s, over 30,000 people each year may die from heat-related causes in England and Wales due to climate change. A recent study from UCL and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine highlights alarming projections.

From 1981 to 2021, England and Wales averaged about 634 heat-related deaths annually. The study suggests that if temperatures rise by 4.3°C by century’s end, and no significant efforts are made to adapt, deaths could soar to over 34,000. Even in a scenario where temperatures are limited to a 1.6°C rise with good adaptation strategies, we could still see a sixfold increase in heat deaths by the 2070s.

The record-breaking summer of 2022, which saw temperatures peak at 40.3°C, resulted in nearly 3,000 extra deaths. This could indicate a “new normal” coming sooner than expected.

Dr. Clare Heaviside from UCL described these findings as a “sobering picture” of climate change’s impact on health. She emphasized the need for urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and implement effective adaptations.

The study also points out an increasingly older population in England and Wales. By the 2060s, the number of people aged 65 and older is expected to rise significantly, further increasing vulnerability to heat-related issues. Over 250 million individuals worldwide aged 69 and above will face unsafe heat levels by 2050, a troubling statistic that adds urgency to the need for preventive measures.

Dr. Rebecca Cole, who led the study, stressed the importance of thoughtful urban planning and social equity to tackle heat-related deaths. The way we build cities and support vulnerable communities will play a critical role in how we adapt to rising temperatures.

Responses from public health experts underline the gravity of the situation. Matthew Bazeley-Bell from the Royal Society for Public Health explained that climate change doubles as a public health crisis. He emphasized the need for strategies that reduce emissions and equip communities, especially vulnerable groups, to cope with heat.

Dr. Akshay Deoras, a research scientist, echoed the sentiment that as climate alarms sound louder, extreme heat silently claims lives. With more heatwaves predicted, the urgency for action intensifies.

Dr. Raquel Nunes from the University of Warwick called for preventive measures, pointing out that heat-related deaths are both preventable and indicative of broader systemic failures. She advocated for policies and infrastructure that support all populations.

Prof. Lea Berrang Ford from the UK Health Security Agency emphasized that the links between heat and mortality are clear. The health choices we make now will shape the climate our children inherit, making immediate action crucial.

As heatwaves become more frequent, it’s essential to prioritize vulnerable groups in climate and public health strategies. Proper planning and proactive measures can help mitigate the long-term impacts of climate change on health.

For more information on the potential health impacts of climate change, you can refer to the UK Health Security Agency’s guidance.

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