On March 4-5, Somalia held the Sixth National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF6) in Mogadishu. This gathering focused on predicting and preparing for the climate conditions expected in the Gu season, which runs from March to May. organized by the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, with support from the FAO, WMO, and ICPAC, the forum brought together over 40 participants from various sectors.
Key participants included representatives from the Federal Government of Somalia, local states, and sectors like agriculture, health, and disaster management. The forum aimed to evaluate the climate outlook for the Gu 2025 season, look back at the recent Deyr season’s impacts, and discuss strategies to cope with upcoming challenges.
Climate Outlook for Gu 2025
The findings showed a concerning trend: much of Somalia can expect lower-than-average rainfall. Areas like Gedo, Hiraan, and Galguduud might face drier conditions with a probability exceeding 50%. Additionally, temperatures are expected to be higher than usual in regions including Hirshabelle and Puntland.
The expected timing of rainfall will vary across the country:
- Early (April 10-17): Parts of Gedo.
- Moderate (April 17-24): Lower Juba and Hirshabelle.
- Late (April 24-30): Mudug and southern Nugaal.
- Peak rainfall: April 20 to May 11, mainly along the coast of Lower Juba.
Implications and Actions
These anticipated conditions raise significant concerns about food security, access to water, and livestock health. Prolonged dry spells could exacerbate drought conditions, leading to higher humanitarian needs.
The forum provided several recommendations to address these challenges:
- Enhance Early Warning Systems: It’s crucial for government and humanitarian organizations to improve how they communicate risks and respond to drought.
- Adopt Sustainable Practices: Farmers and livestock owners should consider climate-resilient agricultural techniques and effective water conservation methods.
- Prepare for Health Risks: Authorities must brace for potential outbreaks of heat-related illnesses and waterborne diseases.
- Ensure Timely Humanitarian Assistance: NGOs and development partners should be ready to intervene, especially in severely affected areas.
- Promote Collaboration: Continuous engagement with local communities will be essential for building resilience against climate impacts.
Funding and Support
NCOF6 was supported by the Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems project, which helped organize the forum and develop crucial climate services.
As Somalia approaches the Gu 2025 season, collaboration among government agencies, humanitarian organizations, and local communities will be vital. By working together, they can mitigate the effects of climate change and enhance resilience against ongoing environmental challenges.
Historical Context
Looking back, Somalia has faced numerous climate-related challenges over the years. The 2011 famine, largely driven by drought and poor rainfall, is a stark reminder of how severe weather patterns can impact millions.
Today, experts emphasize the importance of creating adaptive strategies. According to a report by the World Bank, climate change could push an additional 1.9 million people into extreme poverty by 2030 in regions like East Africa. The need for proactive measures such as those discussed at NCOF6 is more urgent than ever.
For more information on climate impacts in East Africa, you can refer to the World Bank Climate Report.
By focusing on adaptive strategies and community engagement, Somalia can work towards a more resilient future in the face of climate variability.
Source link
Somalia, National Climate Outlook Forum, World Meteorological Organization
