Staggering Forecast: B.C. Caribou Populations Could Plummet by 61% – What This Means for Wildlife

A recent study paints a troubling picture for caribou populations. Researchers warn that by 2100, we might see a drastic decline in North America’s caribou due to climate change and human activity. These majestic animals, also known as reindeer, could face a reduction of up to 84% in their populations.

Caribou have adapted through centuries of climate shifts. They play a vital role in their ecosystems, supporting Indigenous cultures and helping the land thrive. Their droppings nourish the soil, while they provide food for predators like wolves and bears. Unfortunately, their numbers have already plummeted by two-thirds over the last three decades, mainly due to human activities such as logging and road building.

This latest research, published in Science Advances, looks at how caribou have fared over the last 21,000 years. An international team of scientists studied fossils and ancient DNA to gauge what future challenges these animals could face. Lead researcher Elisabetta Canteri from the University of Adelaide states North America may see the most significant losses, with many habitats becoming unfit for caribou.

In British Columbia, researchers predict caribou could see a decline of 61% if high warming trends continue. Even under a better scenario, a third could still be lost. This shift means that as some areas become unsuitable, populations may spread out but remain vulnerable.

Interestingly, factors like disease, extreme weather, and hunting weren’t factored into the study. Different caribou types, such as woodland or mountain caribou, might respond uniquely to climate changes, affecting their survival chances.

Adding to the urgency, recent satellite analyses revealed that over 5,700 hectares of forest land in B.C. are set for logging. This includes habitats crucial for some of the most endangered caribou herds. Rachel Plotkin from the David Suzuki Foundation emphasizes the pressing need for responsible logging practices that safeguard wildlife habitats.

While some government agencies are taking steps to protect caribou habitats, many question whether enough is being done. In May 2025, BC Timber Sales announced a pause on new logging in key areas, citing a need to balance environmental preservation with economic goals. However, the duration of this pause and its impact remain unclear.

Experts urge that protecting caribou is not merely an environmental issue but integral to our overall ecosystem health. They note that we have the tools and knowledge to shift practices. It’s not a matter of choosing jobs over the environment, as the health of our ecosystems directly supports our economies.

As we face these challenges, recognizing the interconnectedness of our actions and the environment becomes increasingly vital. Caribou serve as a barometer for ecosystem health, and without urgent action, we risk losing much more than just these iconic animals.

For further insights into wildlife conservation and the impacts of climate change, check out the full study here.

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