Starmer Faces Major Setback: How Losing Control of Commons Could Impact His Leadership

The recent welfare reform vote felt chaotic, much like the tumultuous debates during Brexit. It’s surprising, especially since the current government knows that it lacks a clear mandate, unlike the tumultuous times faced by former leaders like Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.

In this situation, Sir Keir Starmer, who does have a mandate and a majority, found himself in a precarious position. His own MPs turned against him, and Downing Street struggled to grasp the depth of their dissatisfaction quickly. This led to a sudden and messy U-turn in policy, finalized just after midnight.

Initially, the government thought it could manage the fallout. However, a group of roughly 50 Labour MPs remained staunchly opposed. As the weeks went by, reports indicated that the number of would-be rebels was growing, causing rising anxiety within government ranks. When Monday arrived and more details were shared, the reassurance intended for MPs only fueled further uncertainty.

By late Monday, it was acknowledged among senior Labour figures that the situation was dire. On Tuesday, Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall reaffirmed the government’s plans to change eligibility criteria for the Personal Independence Payment next November. Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner was busy trying to rally support among Labour MPs. Despite efforts, the number of dissenters was growing—some estimates suggested 75 or even 80 rebels could oppose the bill.

This left the prime minister with little choice but to concede again, revealing just how fragile his plans were. Sir Stephen Timms stepped in to announce another reversal, which angered many MPs. Among those frustrated was Dame Meg Hillier, who warned that any future tax increases would need to be owned by the leadership. The reactions were fierce: some MPs called the government’s approach a “nightmare,” while others simply referred to them as “jokers.”

As the fallout continued, some government insiders criticized Labour MPs for their perceived complacency. This tumultuous atmosphere raises questions about the future. There’s a strong belief that tax increases may be inevitable in the upcoming budget, and doubts are cast on whether Rachel Reeves will still be Chancellor at that time.

Internally, the climate in Downing Street appears tense. The prime minister’s recent anniversary interviews reflected poorly on his leadership, with some insiders stating that the atmosphere is “appallingly bad.” There’s growing uncertainty about Keir Starmer’s views on both policy and personnel, leading to more questions than answers among his team.

With the economy stagnant, political tensions are high. The chaotic nature of current leadership challenges reflects the many struggles facing leaders in the 2020s. Sir Keir knows he must regain control swiftly to mitigate the damage from this recent upheaval.

In conclusion, the welfare reform vote has underscored the growing discord within the government and among its leaders. Navigating this turbulent political landscape will be essential as the country faces both economic challenges and increasing public scrutiny.



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