Strengthening India’s Influence: Why Control of the Western Indian Ocean is Crucial for the Nation’s Future

The I2U2 partnership, made up of India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States, plays a significant role in securing the Indian Ocean region. While it’s not a military alliance, each member shares common concerns about trade, radicalism, and freedom of navigation, facing similar threats along the way.

However, the capabilities of these partners vary. India stands out with its extensive reach in the Indian Ocean, especially as the U.S. becomes less assertive in the region. Unfortunately, both Washington and New Delhi often overlook the challenges in the Western Indian Ocean and the African coastal nations, focusing instead on China’s influence in the east. The U.S. Navy’s presence is limited, with key bases like the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain concentrating more on the Persian Gulf. Meanwhile, the base in Djibouti focuses on logistics for Africa’s interior, with Diego Garcia serving mainly to support air operations. India, as the world’s largest democracy and most populous nation, has placed some of its investments in Iran’s Chabahar port, even as concerns about U.S.-Iran relations linger. There is a risk that this could strain ties with the U.S. and Israel, especially with the complex geopolitical climate surrounding Iran.

India has been establishing small military bases on islands like Madagascar, Seychelles, and Oman. Recently, Prime Minister Modi inaugurated an airstrip in Agaléga, Mauritius, striving to enhance India’s presence. Yet, it seems like a late effort, as China is rapidly expanding its own influence. For example, China secured a long-term lease of the Hambantota port in Sri Lanka and is heavily invested in Gwadar, Pakistan. These locations serve not just commercial interests but assist China’s military ambitions in the Indian Ocean.

India also faces challenges from other regional players like Pakistan. The rise of insurgency in Mozambique led to the involvement of Islamic State affiliates. This situation poses a risk not only for Mozambique but also for India, given the possible connections between Pakistan and these terrorist groups. With groups like Al Shabaab in Somalia and the Islamic State in Mozambique gaining ground, India must contend with a variety of security threats.

Another concern is Turkey, which has been increasing its investment in Somalia, constructing facilities and training military personnel. Turkey’s influence in the region, paired with its growing ties to Pakistan, could create complications for India, especially if it allows a foothold in the Indian Ocean.

Given its history of colonialism, India has a unique perspective compared to China and other Western nations. India must assert its presence more confidently and act as a balanced stabilizing force in the region. While military bases on Indian Ocean islands are crucial, India should also strengthen its influence on the African mainland, where it has historical ties and existing diaspora communities in countries like Kenya and Tanzania.

Establishing a base in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, could prevent foreign powers from exploiting that region’s resources or aiding terror groups. Additionally, the Berbera port in Somaliland offers strategic advantages, as it has become a major cargo hub and can accommodate Indian naval ships. This would also complement the recently announced India-Middle East Economic Corridor (IMEEC), which aims to improve trade routes while sidestepping Iran.

India should resist pressures that threaten its interests. A joint base at Berbera could not only secure maritime routes but also enhance cooperative defense efforts among I2U2 nations. The Indian Ocean is set to be a key region for trade and security in the 21st century. Therefore, India has to step up and take a leading role. If it does not, it risks letting China and other powers dominate and shape the future of trade and security in this vital area.