Study Reveals Alarming Surge in Flood Frequency in High Mountain Asia Since 2000: Climate Change at the Core

Floods in High Mountain Asia (HMA) have risen sharply since 2000, largely due to climate change, a recent study reveals. Researchers, including environmental expert Sonam Wangchuk, investigated over 1,000 flood events since 1950.

The study shows the region’s average temperature has increased by 0.3 degrees Celsius each decade since 1950, which is reshaping its weather patterns. These changes are impacting the water cycle, raising the risk of flooding. According to the authors, flood events have become more frequent, especially pluvial (rain-driven) and snowmelt floods.

Moreover, the timing of floods is becoming less predictable. Although many still occur during the monsoon season, there is a noticeable increase in floods happening at other times of the year. This unpredictability poses additional challenges for communities in HMA, also known as the ‘Asian Water Tower.’ This region, with its vast ice reserves, supplies water to ten major rivers that support over 2 billion people.

Climate change is particularly troubling in HMA, where temperatures are rising twice as fast as the global average. This is causing more extreme weather events, including glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). In the summer of 2023, heavy rains triggered devastating floods in India, Nepal, and Pakistan, resulting in over 1,500 fatalities.

Burning fossil fuels is a significant factor behind the rising flood frequency. Common flood types in HMA stem from intense rainfall and melting snow, but GLOFs and landslide-dammed lake outburst floods (LLOFs) can be much more sudden and destructive. As urbanization and deforestation continue, communities are more exposed to these risks.

Wangchuk warns that the rules governing floods are changing fast, leaving little time to adapt. A single heavy rain or glacial collapse could lead to catastrophic consequences for unprepared areas. He advocates for real-time flood monitoring, stricter regulations on infrastructure in high-risk locations, and improved cooperation between HMA nations to tackle shared challenges.

Different types of floods have unique causes. For instance, pluvial floods arise from heavy rainfall, while snowmelt floods are influenced by increased temperatures and soil moisture. GLOFs and LLOFs depend on a complex mix of climate factors, glaciers, and mountain landscapes. Human activities continue to exacerbate flood risks, highlighting the urgent need for action.

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