Study Reveals NATO’s Rearmament Could Surge Emissions by 200 Million Tonnes Annually: What This Means for Our Planet

Global military spending is surging, raising alarms about its impact on the planet’s climate goals. Researchers warn that the military expansion, particularly by NATO, could add nearly 200 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions annually.

In 2023, global military expenditure reached a staggering $2.46 trillion, marking the highest level of armed conflicts since World War II. Critics argue that each dollar spent on military hardware not only contributes to carbon emissions but also diverts resources from essential climate initiatives.

Ellie Kinney, a researcher at the Conflict and Environment Observatory, emphasizes that prioritizing short-term security can endanger long-term safety, particularly regarding climate stability. She points out that while nations invest heavily in military resources to safeguard against immediate threats, they may unintentionally worsen climate conditions that can lead to future conflicts.

For example, in regions like Darfur, competition for dwindling resources due to climate change has sparked violence. Even in the Arctic, melting ice is intensifying geopolitical tensions over valuable resources.

Currently, militaries are estimated to account for about 5.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions. As geopolitical tensions rise, spending is likely to increase. The Global Peace Index highlights a concerning trend: militarization has ramped up in 108 nations, with significant conflicts ongoing in places like Ukraine and Gaza. European countries, in particular, have seen military budgets soar by over 30% from 2021 to 2024.

Following the U.S. withdrawal of support for Ukraine, the EU proposed an €800 billion initiative called “ReArm Europe” to bolster military funding across the bloc. Analysts from the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs scrutinized this trend and found that increased military expenditure could translate to greater carbon emissions, potentially equating to adding a country the size of Pakistan to the world’s carbon budget.

Lennard de Klerk, another researcher, notes that the carbon footprint of militaries is substantial due to the materials they utilize, like steel and aluminum, and the fossil fuels consumed during operations.

Transparency about military emissions is rare, making the true impact difficult to gauge. NATO is one of the few organizations providing sufficient data for analysis. Researchers observed that a 2% increase in military spending among NATO countries could lead to an annual rise in emissions of up to 194 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent.

The economic ramifications are serious, too. The social cost of carbon is estimated at $1,347 per tonne, potentially translating the military buildup into economic damages of around $264 billion each year.

Moreover, the diversion of funds to military spending often limits resources for climate action. The UK’s recent budget cuts to overseas aid to accommodate military spending underline this trend. Kinney highlights a troubling disconnection: while governments find money for arms, climate finance commitments remain alarmingly low.

As military investments grow, the implications stretch far beyond immediate national security. They risk jeopardizing the global community’s ability to tackle climate challenges effectively. Only time will tell how nations can balance defense needs with the urgent requirement for sustainable, climate-focused policies.



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