Supervolcano Awakening: What It Means for Us and How Scientists are Prepared

If you’re near Naples, you’ve probably felt the ground move a bit. Streets crack, steam rises, and small earthquakes keep people on edge. All this activity comes from Campi Flegrei, a powerful supervolcano that last erupted in 1538.

Scientists have been closely watching the signals from this area, thinking they indicated rising magma. However, two recent studies in 2023 and 2025 have changed how we view this restless giant.

New Insights from Recent Studies

The 2023 study looked at carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. High CO₂ levels can suggest that magma is on the move. In fact, measurements at a hot zone called Solfatara-Pisciarelli showed CO₂ emissions of about 4,000-5,000 tons daily – among the highest on Earth.

Initially, this spike seemed alarming, hinting at an upcoming eruption. But scientists discovered something unexpected. The study showed that CO₂ levels didn’t just come from magma. Instead, about 20-40% of it was due to hot fluids breaking down minerals in the rocks. This means that when CO₂ rises, it doesn’t always signal magma’s ascent; sometimes, it reflects changes in hot underground fluids.

What’s Behind the Shaking?

Fast forward to May 2025, another research team explored why the ground was moving so dramatically. Comparing unrest episodes from 1982-1984 and 2011-2024, they devised a new model. They used lab experiments that mimicked the geological setup of Campi Flegrei, revealing a surprising culprit: a sealed geothermal reservoir under Pozzuoli.

This reservoir is capped with a piece of rock that quickly seals any cracks. As water and steam get trapped, pressure builds until it can no longer be contained, causing the ground to shake. This pressure cycle leads to shallow earthquakes, which is quite different from eruptions caused by rising magma.

How Can We Manage the Risk?

Here’s where it gets encouraging. If the unrest is driven by pressure in a closed system, we might manage that pressure. While we can’t change the heat from deep within the Earth, we can control how much water goes into that reservoir.

Simple measures like improving drainage channels, monitoring groundwater levels, and possibly releasing pressure through wells could help. It’s similar to checking your car’s radiator; keeping it from overflowing or clogging can prevent bigger issues.

Understanding the Eruption Risk

So, what does this all mean for eruption risk? Campi Flegrei is still dangerous. It still has magma below and a history of significant eruptions, but this new perspective offers a chance for some level of mitigation. While spikes in gas and earthquakes can still occur, managing underground pressure could reduce the risk of destructive events.

Importantly, this approach shifts our mindset from just monitoring to actively preventing problems. Engineers and scientists can collaborate to keep the area safer, making it possible to control civil risks while still watching for signs of danger.

The groundbreaking findings from these studies showcase a new understanding of Campi Flegrei. With careful planning and cooperation, we may not just survive in the shadow of this supervolcano but learn to manage its volatile nature better.

For more on this topic, check out the full 2023 study in Geology and the 2025 study in Science Advances.

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