Samuel Alito, a Supreme Court Justice, recently stirred controversy with his claims about voter turnout in Louisiana. A review by The Guardian shows that his statements were based on questionable data analysis.
In a recent ruling affecting the Voting Rights Act, Alito argued that Black voter turnout had outpaced white turnout in recent presidential elections, both nationally and in Louisiana. He suggested that this trend indicated that the discrimination that originally prompted the Voting Rights Act was no longer an issue. This assertion was borrowed from a brief filed by the Justice Department.
Alito stated, “Vast social change has occurred” and claimed that Black voters now participate at rates comparable to the general electorate. However, The Guardian found that the data Alito referenced used a flawed methodology, calculating voter turnout based on the total population over the age of 18 rather than just eligible voters. Experts usually advise against this approach because it includes non-citizens and others unable to vote, leading to misleading results.
Michael McDonald, a political science expert from the University of Florida, highlighted the issues with the Justice Department’s analysis. He pointed out, “They had to fudge how they’re calculating the turnout rate.” A spokesperson from the Justice Department admitted they used total voting-age population figures but didn’t explain why.
When looking at voter turnout data from the Louisiana Secretary of State’s office, which calculates turnout based on registered voters, it shows that Black turnout has not exceeded white turnout in any of the last five presidential elections.
Contrary to Alito’s claims, recent data shows a widening gap in voter turnout between Black and white voters. In the elections following Barack Obama’s presidency, Black voter turnout has consistently lagged behind that of white voters. Kevin Morris from the Brennan Center for Justice noted that the turnout gap has “exploded” over the last 15 years, and Alito’s assertion remains “simply not factual.”
Historically, the Voting Rights Act was implemented in 1965 to address severe racial disparities in voting. Initially, Black voter registration in southern states was significantly lower than that of white voters. Over time, following the Act’s enactment, Black voter registration increased dramatically. However, after the Supreme Court’s 2013 decision in Shelby County v. Holder, which weakened key protections of the Act, the voting landscape shifted again.
Kareem Crayton, a vice president at the Brennan Center, emphasized that just because conditions improved in the past doesn’t mean the need for protections like the Voting Rights Act has disappeared. He argued that evaluating the Act’s relevance solely on past progress overlooks ongoing disparities.
While the conversation around voting rights continues, it’s clear that the issue is complex and far from resolved.
For further information, you can check out the Brennan Center’s research.
