Republican Primary Voters Prepare for Likely May Runoff between Paxton and Cornyn
A recent Emerson College Poll shows Texas’ Democratic Primary race heating up. State Rep. James Talarico holds a slight lead over U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, with Talarico at 52% and Crockett at 47%. This is a close contest, and the margin for error makes it even tighter.
According to Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, Talarico is winning early voters, 58% to Crockett’s 41%. However, Crockett is performing better on Election Day, leading 50% to 39%. It seems the turnout of these two groups will be crucial.
Talarico’s support is strong among white voters, leading 71% to 29%, as well as Hispanic voters at 60% to 39%. In contrast, Crockett finds her base among female voters (51% to 48%) and Black voters (80% to 18%).
Since January, Talarico has gained significant support from white voters—up 14 points—while Crockett has made strides among Hispanic voters, gaining 14 points as well. The trends show Talarico gaining ten points among Black voters, rising from 8% to 18%.
Voter age also plays a role. Those under 40 favor Talarico by ten points, while voters aged 40 to 60 are nearly split. Older voters over 70 also lean towards Talarico. Among Democrats, Crockett is slightly ahead at 50% compared to Talarico’s 49%, while independents support Talarico more strongly, 62% to 35%.
On the Republican side, the race is close between Attorney General Ken Paxton and incumbent Senator John Cornyn. Paxton leads with 40% compared to Cornyn’s 36%, while Rep. Wesley Hunt has 17%. Paxton has gained 13 points since January, while Cornyn’s support has risen by ten points.
Cornyn is strong among early voters, while Paxton has a 12-point advantage on Election Day, showing a divide in support. Kimball noted that Cornyn does better among voters with college degrees and those over 70, while Paxton is favored among younger voters.
Interestingly, Paxton’s appeal is stronger among those who voted for Trump in 2024, leading Cornyn 46% to 33%. However, Cornyn attracts former voters of other candidates, earning 49% from that group compared to Paxton’s 8%.
The Emerson College Poll was conducted from February 26-27, 2026. It surveyed 850 likely voters in the Democratic Primary and 547 in the Republican Primary, with different margins of error. A major point to take from this is that smaller demographic groups can yield less reliable results due to reduced sample sizes.
This polling data paints an intriguing picture of Texas politics today, showing shifting loyalties and demographic influences that could shape future elections. For those interested in the latest from the political landscape, this survey offers critical insights into voter behavior.
For further details on the methodology of the poll, visit Emerson College’s website for comprehensive documentation of their findings.
