Tracking Disturbance 95L: What You Need to Know About its Development in the Central Atlantic

A tropical wave known as Invest 95L is moving quickly west-northwest at about 15-20 mph through the central Atlantic. It’s expected to strengthen into a tropical depression or storm by Thursday, nearing the northeastern Leeward Islands.

Recent satellite images indicate that 95L is well-organized, with strong spinning patterns and increasing thunderstorms. It benefits from warm ocean temperatures of around 29 degrees Celsius (84°F), moderate wind shear of 10-15 knots, and a moist environment.

Steering currents suggest that 95L will continue its current path, possibly passing a few hundred miles northeast of the Leeward Islands later this week. However, it could still bring heavy rains and gusty winds to the islands, even if its center doesn’t pass directly over them. Experts are uncertain about the storm’s intensity, with predictions ranging from a tropical depression to a major hurricane. Clarity on its development will likely come as the system organizes further.

As of Monday morning, the National Hurricane Center rated the chances of 95L developing over the next two days at 50% and over the next week at 70%. The next storm name in line is Jerry.

This year’s Atlantic hurricane season has been noteworthy. We’ve seen nine named storms and four hurricanes, including Category 5 storms like Erin and Gabrielle. Compared to the average from 1991-2020, we’re currently below average in general storm numbers but have an above-average occurrence of major hurricanes. Interestingly, the accumulated cyclone energy is nearing the average for this time of year, which often sees around 20% of storm activity remain post-October 5.

As we keep a close watch on 95L, many are sharing their thoughts on social media, expressing both concern and curiosity about its potential impacts. With storms like this, readiness is important, and individual preparations can make a real difference.

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Jeff Masters