Trump Claims Labor Stats Are a ‘Scam’: Unveiling the Truth Behind the Jobs Report Process | CNN Business

Recently, former President Donald Trump claimed that changes to the latest jobs report were a “scam.” He pointed fingers at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), suggesting they had manipulated data to discredit his presidency.

In a Truth Social post, Trump stated, “In my opinion, today’s Jobs Numbers were RIGGED.” Following this, he terminated Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the BLS commissioner. Trump inaccurately claimed the BLS’s revisions were the most significant miscalculations in decades, but in reality, these adjustments were not unique or indicative of wrongdoing.

The BLS, established in 1884, operates independently within the U.S. Department of Labor. While the Labor Secretary oversees it, a Senate-appointed commissioner manages its operations. This agency plays a crucial role in publishing vital data about jobs, prices, inflation, and more.

With over 2,000 employees, the BLS employs economists and survey groups who gather and analyze data from households and businesses. They rely on two main surveys: the household survey, which collects information from individual residents, and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, sourcing data from thousands of businesses. Interestingly, participation in the CES survey is voluntary, although some states have made it mandatory.

Each month, the BLS releases the Employment Situation Summary, typically on the first Friday. This report includes the unemployment rate and the number of jobs gained or lost in the economy, updated monthly along with revisions for the two prior months. These revisions can be substantial—recently, job totals for May dipped from 139,000 to just 19,000, a drop of 120,000 jobs, while June’s figure fell from 147,000 to 14,000.

Despite criticism, the BLS states that its initial job numbers are preliminary. They are adjusted over time based on more complete data. Revisions can also occur due to new seasonal adjustments that take into account the economic landscape.

While Trump’s claims highlight concerns, they are not new. Historical data show that notable revisions have taken place before, especially during times of economic upheaval, such as the pandemic. In 2020, job numbers fluctuated dramatically, with March’s numbers seeing a record revision due to the lockdown impacts.

For businesses and government bodies, BLS data is essential for informed decision-making regarding hiring and investment strategies. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized this point, acknowledging that “good data helps not just the Fed, but also the government and the private sector.”

The BLS’s credibility remains crucial. According to former BLS Commissioner William Beach, undermining the agency’s independence can threaten the trust in the economic data it provides. Beach remarked, “BLS is the finest statistical agency in the entire world; its numbers are trusted globally.”

While alternatives to BLS data exist, such as payroll reports by ADP, they often lack accuracy and cohesiveness compared to the BLS’s comprehensive surveys, making the BLS’s work indispensable. As it navigates daily challenges, the commitment to delivering reliable information remains vital for sustaining economic stability and trust.

For more insights into the BLS’s methodologies and data projects, visit the official BLS website.

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