Recent studies are showing just how much the Trump administration’s climate policies are affecting global health. Rising temperatures are a serious threat, causing numerous deaths every year, particularly in poorer countries. An in-depth analysis from ProPublica and The Guardian found that the “America First” agenda, which focused on fossil fuels, is expected to lead to an additional 1.3 million deaths from heat-related causes over the next several decades.
The research highlights a troubling trend: most of the future casualties will be in less wealthy regions, particularly in Africa and South Asia. These areas contribute little to global emissions yet are the most vulnerable to rising heat. For instance, countries like Niger and Somalia are expected to see some of the highest per capita death rates from extreme temperatures, even though their emissions are minimal.
In the short term, while rising heat is increasing mortality rates, especially among vulnerable populations such as the elderly and outdoor workers, the overall number of temperature-related deaths is still somewhat balanced by fewer cold-related deaths. However, experts predict that in the latter half of this century, the toll from heat will exceed the reduction in cold-related deaths significantly.
Marshall Burke, an economist at Stanford’s Doerr School of Sustainability, emphasized the gravity of the situation: “Reversing progress in climate policy fundamentally changes expected global damage.” Even with the expected benefits from a reduction in cold-related deaths, the future looks dire if emissions are not curbed.
This year, global leaders gathered in Belém, Brazil, to discuss ongoing climate impacts. The absence of the United States at such a critical time did not go unnoticed. Although the U.S. makes up only 4% of the world’s population, it has historically produced about 20% of greenhouse gases, a legacy that raises eyebrows at international forums.
Experts across the board are sounding alarms about the human costs tied to climate inaction. Ife Kilimanjaro, from the U.S. Climate Action Network, stated, “These are people with lives, families, hopes, and dreams.” She highlights that climate change is not just a distant worry, but a current reality affecting real lives.
Even more troubling, research from the Yale School of Public Health has indicated a sharp rise in heat-related deaths in the U.S., increasing over 50% since 2000. The 2021 heatwave in the Pacific Northwest resulted in severe fatalities, underscoring the immediate dangers posed by extreme heat exacerbated by climate change. Many victims were found in homes without air conditioning, showcasing the urgent need for protective measures.
Climate data leads to one clear conclusion: the policies put in place today will heavily influence mortality rates for generations to come. R. Daniel Bressler, an economics professor, has shown that under current trajectories, millions could succumb to climate-induced causes if significant changes don’t occur soon. His studies indicate that each additional metric ton of carbon dioxide released could result in a measurable increase in anticipated fatalities.
“The choices we make now directly impact lives,” Bressler explained. “Add emissions, and you add deaths; reduce them, and you save lives.” As communities around the globe confront the daily realities of climate change, it becomes increasingly clear that policy decisions are not just political choices—they are matters of life and death.
