Climate diplomats are gathering in China this week to kick off work on the next big report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This report is crucial as it helps shape global policies on climate change. However, the meeting will proceed without US officials due to a stop-work order issued by the Trump administration, which has left many wondering about the future of the IPCC without US input.
This absence of American scientists is significant. NASA’s chief scientist, Kate Calvin, who plays an important role in this new report cycle, is no longer attending the meeting. According to reports, US scientists involved with the IPCC assessments were stopped from participating, impacting the collaborative effort.
The IPCC’s Working Group III, which focuses on mitigation strategies, has not received any formal updates regarding the US’s status, as confirmed by an IPCC spokesperson. With the US missing from these discussions, experts are concerned about the implications for climate science and policy. The funding and data contributions from the US play a big role in climate research. Experts have noted that the US contributes more to climate science than any other country.
Historically, the US has provided around 18% of the authors for IPCC reports, significantly more than any other nation, including the UK. This influence has implications for the IPCC’s upcoming seventh assessment report, expected in 2029. The upcoming meeting in Hangzhou will focus on budget outlines and new technologies for carbon removal and capture, which are crucial for combatting climate change.
During the meeting, Inger Andersen, the executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme, pointed out that the goals of the Paris Agreement are under threat. She emphasized that even small increments of temperature rise can have deadly consequences. “Science is physics, not politics,” she stated, highlighting the need for evidence-based decision-making in climate policy.
Since its inception in 1988, the IPCC has become a cornerstone for understanding climate science. It plays a vital role in guiding policy and investment decisions globally. Over the years, the IPCC has released numerous assessments that have documented the clear link between human activity and climate change. For instance, in 1995, the IPCC acknowledged a “discernible human influence” on the climate, a claim that has grown stronger with each subsequent report.
Despite the US’s significant role, some scientists believe the IPCC can endure without it. Detlef van Vuuren, a climate researcher, stated that while the US’s absence is concerning, the IPCC is resilient enough to continue its mission. Nonetheless, the current situation raises pressing questions about the global response to climate change and the importance of international cooperation.
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