Global warming is on an alarming trajectory, with the United Nations warning that we may exceed the critical 1.5°C limit above pre-industrial levels within the next ten years. The UNEP’s annual Emissions Gap report highlights that while immediate action can delay this, it won’t stop it altogether.
Scientists agree that surpassing this limit could lead to severe consequences, like unpredictable weather patterns and natural disasters. Inger Andersen, the UNEP executive director, emphasizes that while achieving the Paris Agreement’s targets remains possible, it requires urgent action.
Every fraction of a degree matters. Beyond 1.5°C, we risk crossing critical tipping points, such as the irreversible loss of the West Antarctic ice sheet. Unfortunately, many governments are lagging in their commitment to reducing emissions, with only about one-third of the nearly 200 countries involved presenting their 2035 plans ahead of the COP30 conference.
To stick to the 2°C goal, global greenhouse gas emissions need to drop by 25% from 2019 levels by 2030 and by 35% by 2035. Yet, current pledges suggest only a 15% reduction. This could push warming between 2.3°C and 2.5°C, depending on whether conditional promises are kept.
Interestingly, recent findings show emissions spiking by 2.3% in 2024, driven mainly by deforestation and fossil fuels, which account for 36% of this increase. Countries like India and China are leading this rise, while the European Union has made some progress in cutting emissions, though they also missed the recent NDC deadline.
Historically, commitments made in the Paris Agreement a decade ago are still unmet, raising questions about the effectiveness of global initiatives. The trends we’re seeing now are stark reminders of how urgent this issue is. Adopting more aggressive climate policies and sticking to them is crucial for safeguarding our planet and future generations.
