Uncontrolled Plunge: Soviet-Era Spacecraft Set to Re-enter Earth’s Atmosphere Next Week

A Soviet-era spacecraft, designed for a Venus mission, is set to make an uncontrolled return to Earth soon. Experts are monitoring its descent, but it’s unclear exactly where this half-ton piece of metal will land or how much will survive the fiery re-entry.

What We Know

Dutch scientist Marco Langbroek estimates that the spacecraft, known as Kosmos 482, will re-enter around May 10. If it holds together, it could crash at speeds of 150 mph (242 km/h). He reassures us that the risk of harm is low, comparable to being hit by a random falling meteorite. In fact, you’re more likely to be struck by lightning in your lifetime than to be affected by this falling spacecraft.

Background on Kosmos 482

Launched in 1972, Kosmos 482 was part of a series of missions to Venus but never made it beyond Earth’s orbit due to a rocket failure. Most components fell back to Earth within a decade, but the spherical landing capsule, about 3 feet in diameter, has been orbiting for 53 years. Over time, it has gradually decreased in altitude.

Given its design, there’s a possibility the spacecraft could survive its descent. It was engineered to endure the thick, harsh atmosphere of Venus. However, after decades in orbit, experts are skeptical about the function of its parachutes and the integrity of its heat shield.

Jonathan McDowell from the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics suggests that if the heat shield breaks down, the spacecraft might burn up in the atmosphere. If it holds up, we could see a significant metal object falling to Earth.

Potential Landing Areas

The re-entry path could cover a broad swath of the globe, reaching as far north as London and as far south as Cape Horn in South America. Fortunately, most of the Earth’s surface is covered by water, increasing the likelihood that it will land in the ocean.

Looking Back

Uncontrolled space re-entries are not new. In 2022, a Chinese rocket returned to Earth in a similar manner, and in 2018, China’s Tiangong-1 space station had an uncontrolled re-entry over the South Pacific. Such incidents remind us of the ongoing challenges and risks associated with space missions.

As we watch Kosmos 482’s journey, it serves as a reminder of the complexity of space exploration and the lasting impacts of past technological endeavors.

For more on similar space incidents, check out this Guardian article on a recent uncontrolled return.

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