Organized violence significantly affects the impacts of climate change and how we respond to it. Instead of merely asking if climate change will trigger new conflicts, it’s crucial to consider how to help those already dealing with violence. A recent Geopolitics article suggests focusing on reducing vulnerabilities in conflict-impacted populations and implementing effective climate strategies.
Many leaders believe there’s a direct link between climate change and violence. Noteworthy figures like former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and the current British monarch have voiced concerns about this connection. Still, research paints a different picture. A 2019 survey of scholars revealed that climate change is often only a minor contributor to conflict, unless global temperatures rise significantly. Similarly, a 2023 study by researcher Tobias Ide found that disasters can sometimes coincide with less conflict, showing the complexity of the relationship.
Although climate change might not directly cause war, it can worsen existing vulnerabilities. Countries that are particularly susceptible to climate impacts, like low-income nations or small island states, often have histories of conflict. War destroys essential resources such as food, clean water, and health services, intensifying challenges in adapting to climate change.
Military Emissions
Violence doesn’t just result from climate change—it also contributes to it. Warfare consumes vast amounts of energy and generates significant greenhouse gases. Studies have evaluated the emissions from environmental damage caused by wars. For instance, the conflict in Ukraine has already released approximately 77 million tons of CO₂-equivalent emissions just from the first 18 months, a figure that represents a small fraction of global emissions yet emphasizes a growing problem.
Another hidden factor is that many military emissions come from simply maintaining a military presence rather than actual combat. The defense sector accounts for about 5.5% of global emissions, emphasizing an urgent need for policies that address these figures as we think about climate change and conflict.
Shifts in Climate Politics
Recent conflicts have reshaped climate policy discussions significantly. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU’s energy strategy underwent a notable change. The RePower EU initiative redefined renewable energy goals as matters of security rather than just environmental concerns. Similarly, the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act is driven partly by fears about competition with nations like China in clean technology, showing how security issues can influence climate action.
This shift away from market-driven approaches toward more direct public investment in green technologies highlights a trend that views climate solutions through the lens of security.
Climate Cooperation Challenges
While the urgency of energy security can drive nations toward renewables, it complicates international collaboration on climate issues. The Arctic Council, which focuses on addressing climate challenges, has struggled to maintain its initiatives amid rising tensions, reflecting broader geopolitical frictions.
Real progress on global climate initiatives demands countries work together effectively. In a world marked by conflict, this cooperation becomes much more challenging.
Potential Outcomes and the Path Forward
If we successfully shift to cleaner energy rapidly, we still need to be cautious. The demand for minerals required for green technologies could lead to violence and social issues similar to those seen in traditional resource extraction. Countries overly reliant on fossil fuels also face uncertainty; many depend heavily on fossil fuel revenues, making transitions challenging.
In light of these complex dynamics, there are three main takeaways for citizens and policymakers:
While the role of climate change in conflict is limited, the effects of violence heighten vulnerability. The focus should be on supporting those already impacted by conflict to enhance resilience against climate impacts.
Climate and security challenges are intertwined. Effective climate strategies must consider the realities of active conflict zones.
Short-term motivations may spur clean energy production, but achieving real progress, especially in reducing fossil fuel dependence, necessitates strong international cooperation.
In essence, addressing the intertwined issues of climate change and organized violence will require holistic and inclusive approaches that prioritize human security amid environmental change.
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Klimasicherheitspolitik,Klimawandel,Militär,politische Gewalt
