Vladimir Putin recently emphasized that controlling Donbas, Ukraine’s industrial core, is crucial for ending the ongoing war. During talks in Alaska, he insisted that Ukraine withdraw its forces from Donetsk and Luhansk—the two regions that make up Donbas. In exchange, he offered a freeze along the rest of the frontline.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has firmly rejected any territorial concessions. This stance is backed by a strong sentiment among Ukrainians; a recent poll showed that about 75% oppose giving up land to Russia.
The fight for Donbas isn’t new. It began in 2014 when Russia supported separatists after a political upheaval in Ukraine. Since then, Russia has made significant territorial gains, controlling around 88% of Donbas today. This includes all of Luhansk and a large part of Donetsk. Despite this, Ukraine maintains vital cities and positions there, with over 250,000 civilians still in controlled areas.
Historically, Donbas—short for Donets Basin—has been an industrial powerhouse rich in coal. It has seen heavy Russian migration, leading to strong Russian-speaking communities. This cultural backdrop makes the region politically sensitive, especially since the fallout from the 2014 protests that ousted pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych led to a surge in both conflict and anti-Moscow sentiment in Ukraine.
In recent years, the narrative around Donbas has shifted. Initially, Russian state media attempted to garner support by framing claims of discrimination against Russian speakers. However, early polls indicated that only about 25% of Russians were in favor of integrating Donetsk and Luhansk into Russia. Now, following the invasion, support for Putin’s actions in Donbas has grown among the Russian public.
Despite this, analysts are skeptical about Russia’s ambitions. Many believe Putin’s initial goal was broader than just Donbas. He has mentioned plans for buffer zones in other parts of Ukraine, hinting at a desire for continued territorial expansion. Military experts speculate that the conflict could devolve into a protracted war of attrition as Russia may lack the resources for further significant advances.
In summary, the struggle for Donbas highlights complex historical ties and modern political dynamics. As both sides dig in, the future of this region remains uncertain. Engaging with the conflict means considering not just the present landscape but also the lasting impacts of history and public sentiment.
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