Understanding the Thai-Cambodian Conflict: How a US Ally Faces a China-Backed Opponent

The ongoing conflict between Thailand and Cambodia is more than just a battle over territory; it’s a clash shaped by history and military might. As both nations grapple with a border dispute that dates back to the colonial era, tensions have escalated. Since fighting erupted on Thursday, reports indicate over a dozen fatalities, numerous injuries, and the evacuation of around 150,000 civilians.

Thailand has a substantial military edge. Currently, it boasts approximately 361,000 active-duty personnel, a number three times greater than Cambodia’s. Its arsenal includes advanced fighter jets and numerous battle tanks. “Thailand has well-funded military forces, putting it among the best trained in Southeast Asia,” notes the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in its “Military Balance 2025” report.

In contrast, Cambodia’s military, established only in 1993 following the merger of various factions, cannot match Thailand’s resources. It relies heavily on foreign supplies, primarily from China and Vietnam. Reports indicate that China has even developed a naval base in Cambodia, emphasizing its growing influence in the region.

Despite Thailand’s military superiority, geographic factors can complicate engagements. Carl Schuster, a military analyst, points out that the terrain might provide advantages to Cambodian forces. “Access from Cambodian territory to disputed areas can be beneficial for them,” he says, adding that Cambodian troops have reportedly laid landmines in these regions.

Historically, Thailand has had strong ties with the United States, solidifying its international standing as a major non-NATO ally. This relationship dates back to the 1950s and has resulted in significant military support over decades. The enduring partnership features joint military drills like the Cobra Gold exercise, which continues to include a variety of international participants.

However, in recent years, Thailand has sought a more balanced military policy, increasing its ties with China while developing a domestic arms industry. This shift reflects a desire not to rely solely on one defense partner, bolstering its strategic autonomy.

As the conflict unfolds, both nations’ military dynamics and alliances will play crucial roles. With Thailand’s resources and historical connections, it stands strong. Yet, Cambodia’s young military is evolving rapidly, backed significantly by China, adding layers of complexity to this already tense situation.



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