Understanding Voter Discontent: Why Trump’s Base Feels Betrayed in a K-Shaped Economy

Just before his second term began, President Donald Trump voiced concerns about rising gas and grocery prices. He promised to lower them, saying, “It’s always hard to bring down prices when somebody else has screwed something up like Biden did.” He believed significant reductions were on the horizon.

Exit polls from the November 2024 election revealed that many Americans related to Trump’s worries about prices. Voters without college degrees and those earning under $100,000 mainly chose Trump, highlighting a shift among working-class voters toward his party. This trend had been developing over the past ten years but is now evolving again.

Recent economic data shows a discrepancy in recovery, referred to as a “K-shaped economy.” In this scenario, the wealthy are thriving while the poor struggle. Consequently, trust in the economy—and in Trump—is waning. Despite a surge of working-class support during the 2024 elections, the November off-year elections saw these voters favor Democrats like Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger, who focus on affordability.

Economists warn that income inequality is worsening. Trosten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, pointed out a steep drop in wage growth for low-income workers, while wages for the highest earners have surged. A Moody’s Analytics report indicated that the top 10% of households now account for nearly half of all consumer spending. New York University’s Edward Nathan Wolff estimated that the wealthiest households own about 93% of all stock in the U.S.

Even major companies are aware of this divide. Delta Airlines noted that premium travel is outpacing economy flights ahead of schedule. In contrast, fast-food giants like McDonald’s attract higher-income customers while others struggle for sales. The housing market, once robust, has stalled, making buying a home unaffordable for many. The National Association of Realtors reported that first-time homebuyers are now averaging 40 years old, indicating a growing barrier for young families.

A spokesperson from The Amherst Group, Sean Dobson, emphasized that housing has become inaccessible for many young Americans. During a November real estate conference, he stated that despite pursuing education and stable jobs, many feel they didn’t receive the expected returns on their investments.

Some blame Trump for these economic issues. Analysts from Pantheon Macroeconomics have linked wage stagnation to Trump’s tariff policies, which pressured companies to cut wages. During the 2024 campaign, Trump leveraged affordability issues as a central theme, gaining traction among voters concerned about rising costs.

Experts like Peter Loge from George Washington University note that Trump surrounds himself with wealthy individuals, suggesting that his administration prioritizes corporate interests. Recent policy decisions, such as a substantial tax cut benefiting the rich, further highlight these priorities, fueling concerns about sustaining a K-shaped economy.

Even basic assistance programs have been affected. The decision to require low-income Americans to reapply for SNAP benefits during a government shutdown sparked criticism. However, economists argue that the K-shaped economy is a long-standing issue driven by various factors beyond the president’s control.

Peter Atwater, an economics professor, points out that lower-income Americans feel increasingly disconnected from economic recovery. Recent surveys show that these individuals have far less confidence in the economy than their wealthier counterparts. Atwater believes the real issue is a loss of faith among lower-income earners, leading to changes in their spending habits.

Many voters, including those who supported Trump, are growing frustrated. Recent polls show that about 30% of Republicans feel he has not met their expectations regarding economic performance. Additionally, many independents blame him for rising inflation, and his approval rating has dropped significantly.

People’s needs are straightforward—they want stable jobs, affordable healthcare, and a better future for their children. When politicians fail to deliver on these fronts, voters may seek new leadership. Loge emphasized this need for affordability and a desire for change.

In light of shifting sentiments, Trump has proposed measures like 50-year mortgages and rebate checks to alleviate financial pressures. He acknowledged the Republican Party could do more to communicate their plans for the economy.

UBS Wealth Management’s economist Paul Donovan warned that affordability concerns may persist in economic discussions. He suggests that the feeling of not being able to afford basic needs could linger, fueled by carefully curated images on social media that highlight lifestyles just out of reach for many.

As political tides shift, experts are uncertain about the future. While Trump’s economic policies might rally some support, incumbent politicians may struggle to gain traction as frustrations rise across both parties. Atwater believes the desire for change transcends party lines, pointing to a widespread dissatisfaction with the current economic landscape.

This crisis of confidence affects many, as evidenced by global events tied to rising food prices. Atwater warns that without genuine concern from those in power, these tensions could boil over, leading to significant consequences.

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affordability,consumer sentiment,Donald Trump,economic indicators