NASCAR’s season includes 26 regular races, with 16 drivers making the playoffs. If a driver wins twice, they secure a spot in the postseason. Christopher Bell has already made his mark, winning two of the first three races this season, which guarantees him a place in the playoffs. Now, he’s gearing up for the 2025 Shriners Children’s 500, set for Sunday. This exciting race covers 312 laps around Phoenix Raceway’s one-mile tri-oval, starting at 3:30 p.m. ET. According to FanDuel, Bell is the favorite at +500, with sunny weather and temperatures around 70 expected for the event.
Right behind him in the odds are Ryan Blaney (+550), Kyle Larson (+850), Chase Elliott (+1000), William Byron (+1000), Denny Hamlin (+1100), and Joey Logano (+1200). As you prepare for your 2025 Shriners Children’s 500 picks and NASCAR DFS lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel, don’t forget to check out the latest predictions from SportsLine’s model.
This prediction model, created by NASCAR expert Mike McClure, runs simulations of each race 10,000 times. It considers factors like past track performance and current standings. For instance, it correctly predicted Chase Elliott’s win at the Clash at Bowman Gray and saw potential in Byron during Daytona. In 2024, it accurately called Kyle Larson’s victory in Las Vegas. Since 2021, it has nailed 19 winners, including three in the first seven races of 2023, making it a reliable resource for fans and bettors.
For the upcoming race, the model has strong recommendations, particularly for Ross Chastain, who is a longshot at +1500. Chastain has thrived in the competitive climate created by the Next-Gen Car, boasting five wins and two playoff appearances in the last three seasons. He finished second in the standings in both 2022 and 2023, although he slipped to 19th in 2024, still managing a win during the playoffs. Chastain also clinched victory in the 2023 Phoenix finale, highlighting his strong performances at this track with three top-five finishes in just 13 starts.
In a surprising development, the model suggests that Christopher Bell, despite being the favorite, may struggle to place in the top five. Bell showed brilliance with wins in Atlanta and Austin, but he has been inconsistent at Phoenix. Although he led laps during his wins, his overall record at the track includes four finishes outside of the top 15 across 10 Cup starts. This raises doubts about his ability to maintain a strong performance during the Shriners Children’s 500.
Along with predictions for Bell and Chastain, the model believes there are two other drivers with odds longer than 12-1 who could be worth betting on. Fans should watch closely to see which drivers emerge as strong contenders. For a complete breakdown of NASCAR leaderboards and projections, SportsLine offers detailed insights.
Here are the current odds for the 2025 Shriners Children’s 500:
- Christopher Bell +500
- Ryan Blaney +550
- Kyle Larson +850
- William Byron +1000
- Chase Elliott +1000
- Denny Hamlin +1100
- Joey Logano +1200
- Chase Briscoe +1300
- Tyler Reddick +1500
- Ross Chastain +1500
- Ty Gibbs +2200
- Chris Buescher +2200
- Kyle Busch +2500
- Josh Berry +3300
- Brad Keselowski +3500
- Bubba Wallace +4000
- Alex Bowman +5500
- Austin Cindric +6500
- Ryan Preece +7500
- Carson Hocevar +7500
- Daniel Suarez +8000
- Cole Custer +10000
- Noah Gragson +10000
- Michael McDowell +17500
- Erik Jones +20000
- Riley Herbst +20000
- Justin Haley +20000
- AJ Allmendinger +25000
- Austin Dillon +25000
- Shane Van Gisbergen +25000
- Todd Gilliland +30000
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +30000
- Zane Smith +35000
- John Hunter Nemechek +75000
- Ty Dillon +150000
- Cody Ware +250000
- Katherine Legge +250000
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