At Homeland Security Today, we’ve consulted our Editorial Board and network of experts to discuss the risks facing our nation in 2025. These individuals come with a wealth of experience in protecting America. In this three-part series, we explore their insights on critical risks and vulnerabilities that our community must address.
“Some things may change, but some remain constant.”
Our experts highlight several persistent threats: terrorism, drones, cyber risks, and international challenges from countries like China. Additionally, issues like the national debt and healthcare infrastructure are identified as vulnerabilities needing immediate attention. The changing political, social, and tech landscape—particularly advancements like artificial intelligence and quantum computing—adds complexity to national security. Vigilance is also needed to counter threats from groups like the Taliban and ISIS, as well as nations such as China and Russia.
We’ve categorized their assessments into three main areas: >>Terrorism (including lone actors and ISIS),
>>Advanced Technology (focusing on cybersecurity and drones), and
>>Multidimensional Threats (covering political divides, biotechnology, and supply chain issues).
Some insights will be excerpts from longer pieces, which you can read in full through the provided links. We welcome your thoughts as well; input from those in the field is invaluable.
Whether facing new challenges or familiar ones that evolve, this series offers an honest look at our security landscape and sparks discussion on how we can strengthen our defenses.
Advanced Technology
Ransomware, Quantum Computing, & Shadow AI
In 2025, the U.S. will navigate a complex environment of cyber threats that challenge our traditional defense systems. Nation-state actors like China and Russia are particularly active, launching sophisticated cyber campaigns against critical infrastructure. For instance, China’s “Volt Typhoon” operation preemptively sets up tools for potential conflict, marking a shift from mere disruption to strategic positioning.
Ransomware is evolving as well, with a new variant—“Ransomware 3.0”—that employs multiple forms of extortion, affecting both public and private sectors alike. Additionally, services that allow cybercrime as a service (CaaS) enable less-skilled individuals to conduct sophisticated attacks.
The threat of quantum computing is looming, as adversaries are gathering encrypted data to decrypt later once these technologies mature. Although fully operational quantum computers are not here yet, the timeline is closing in. Initiatives like the National Institute of Standards and Technology’s Post-Quantum Cryptography Standardization project aim to develop robust encryption methods to counter this future risk. This isn’t just a government issue; businesses handling sensitive information need to act now.
AI advancements bring their own set of security challenges. Threat actors leverage generative AI to produce deepfakes, enhance phishing schemes, and automate malware creation. The mix of physical and digital threats also demands our attention, especially with drones being used over crucial infrastructure.
To delve deeper into these evolving threats, click here.
Jennifer Ewbank
Former Deputy Director of the Central Intelligence Agency for Digital Innovation
Editorial Board Member, Homeland Security Today
Empowering Law Enforcement in Combatting Crime
Crime trends are worrisome as more offenders exploit technology. Our goal must be to ensure that those using technology for harm are identified and stopped, making the digital space safer for everyone.
Two critical tools can help enhance safety:
First, tech companies must assist law enforcement by providing data of suspected criminals, under strict safeguards and judicial oversight. Second, these companies should actively look for and report illegal activities on their platforms, especially concerning child sexual exploitation, which is a pressing issue. Many children have been protected through these alerts, leading to numerous arrests.
End-to-end encryption can make law enforcement’s job harder unless safeguards are in place. Our society can’t ignore spaces where criminals operate beyond reach. It’s crucial for governments and the private sector to work together to tackle harm and improve public safety in our digital age.
Patrick J. Lechleitner
Former Acting Director, ICE
Former Executive Assistant Director, HSI
Editorial Board Member, Homeland Security Today
Cyber Vulnerabilities in Maritime Security
As we approach 2025, homeland security must address the growing cyber threats in the maritime domain. Cyber weaknesses in port systems and technology demand solid defenses against both state-sponsored hackers and criminal groups looking to disrupt essential operations. The use of drones and underwater vehicles adds new layers to maritime security, requiring advanced tools to keep track of these threats.
Cybersecurity
Automation has enhanced cargo handling but also opened doors to significant cyber vulnerabilities. Automated systems are a target for cyberattacks. Cybercriminals may exploit these weaknesses, making it crucial for experts to implement strong cybersecurity measures to protect our maritime infrastructure.
Unmanned Vehicle Systems
The rise of drones and other unmanned vessels in maritime security brings both advantages and challenges. While these technologies enhance surveillance, they also pose risks of smuggling and sabotage. For instance, an autonomous underwater vehicle could map cable routes or even conduct covert operations.
By embracing advanced technologies and fostering partnerships, homeland security can better protect our vital maritime infrastructure and global trade routes.
Bridgett D. Lewis
Manager of Homeland Security, Port of Long Beach
2024 Local Homeland Security Person of the Year
Facing Sophisticated Cyber Threats
In 2025, cyber threats will become more advanced, using technologies like AI and IoT. Ransomware remains a top concern, with attackers employing double extortion tactics on critical infrastructure. AI-driven attacks are increasing as cybercriminals use machine learning to create adaptable malware and personalized phishing scams.
Key focus areas for cybersecurity experts include:
- Targeting Critical Infrastructure: Attacks on communication, power, and healthcare systems are projected to rise.
- AI-Powered Threats: Cybercriminals will increasingly use AI and ML to conduct sophisticated attacks.
- IoT Vulnerabilities: The rapid adoption of IoT, especially with 5G, creates new risks.
- Evolving Ransomware: Ransomware attacks will target the functionality of critical systems beyond just data encryption.
- Rising Cybercrime Costs: Costs could reach over $10 trillion annually by 2025.
As these challenges unfold, building resilient systems and improving threat detection will be vital.
James L. Turgal
Vice President, Global Cyber Advisory, Optiv Security
Addressing Cybersecurity Threats
The evolving cyber threats in 2025 require homeland security professionals to tackle increasingly complex challenges. State-sponsored and criminal groups are using advanced tools to exploit vulnerabilities in infrastructure and emerging technologies. The rise of AI and the growing risks posed by quantum computing heighten these concerns.
Significant attacks on critical infrastructure, including energy and transportation systems, are on the rise. Ransomware attacks have surged, especially targeting essential sectors. Cybersecurity experts must prioritize sharing threat intelligence and proactive defense strategies to address these risks.
Major events, from elections to sports, are increasingly vulnerable to both physical and cyber threats. Hybrid attacks are becoming common, necessitating coordinated security measures. Executives attending high-profile events must navigate unique risks by implementing integrated security strategies.
AI tools have enabled malicious actors to create sophisticated deepfakes, making attacks more believable. The need for robust cybersecurity measures is critical, especially as quantum computing poses a long-term threat to encryption. Homeland security professionals should work toward adopting post-quantum cryptography as we prepare for these challenges.
Andrew Borene
Executive Director for Global Security, Flashpoint
Cybercriminals and Their Cold War
Recent years have shown that cybercriminals are becoming more daring. What was once exclusive to nation-states is now a game played by loosely organized criminal networks.
What does this mean for 2025? Ransomware and similar attacks are here to stay. Although not a primary threat to well-funded federal agencies, ransomware remains a top risk for state and local governments, businesses, and individuals. Miscreants increasingly target vital services like schools and infrastructure.
Generative AI is changing the landscape, with new models designed for malicious use surfacing regularly. Expect the rise of tools that facilitate both cyber and physical crimes.
China’s cyber operations continue to be a significant concern. Efforts by the Chinese government to hinder U.S. interests will likely heighten if tensions escalate.
Randy Rose
Vice President of Security Operations, Multi-State Information Sharing & Analysis Center
The New Cold War with China
In 2025, the ongoing Cold War with China may intensify. Chinese intelligence agencies are likely to increase infiltration efforts targeting U.S. industries vital to national security, such as defense and technology. Strong counterintelligence measures will be essential.
Cyber threats from China may escalate as state-sponsored hackers adopt more advanced techniques. Critical networks and intellectual property are at risk, making strengthened defenses and international collaboration imperative.
The U.S. economy suffers enormous losses due to Chinese intellectual property theft, which may continue to rise in focus on emerging technologies. Protecting American innovations should be a priority for homeland security professionals in 2025.
Acknowledging the complexity of these threats is vital for a robust national security strategy moving forward.
Shane McNeil
Doctoral Candidate at Institute of World Politics
Counterintelligence Policy Advisor for the Department of Defense
(*All opinions are personal and do not represent official viewpoints.)
Unregulated AI Development
Unregulated AI development poses serious security risks. One major concern is its potential for misuse. Without oversight, adversaries could leverage AI for cyberattacks or autonomous weapons, creating sophisticated and targeted assaults.
AI is also capable of producing convincing misinformation and could disrupt public opinion. The lack of accountability for creators of these systems makes it tough to track harmful activities.
Economic threats also loom large as AI may destabilize industries, manipulate markets, and exacerbate social disparities. Establishing international safety standards for AI deployment is essential to safeguard society.
H.E., The Hon., Sir Thomas A. Cellucci, PhD, MBA
Partner, Chairman & CEO of various organizations
Threat of Unmanned Aircraft Systems
Last year revealed the significant threat posed by unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) to national security. The U.S. lacks the capability to manage UAS threats in real time, and our response infrastructure is severely limited. Important vulnerabilities were highlighted during incidents in New Jersey:
- No clear command and control structure for countering UAS threats. Clarity on who manages mitigation efforts is crucial.
- Inability to promptly identify and assess UAS threats.
- Insufficient C-UAS systems at state and local levels, making it hard to protect vital infrastructure.
The risk of UAS being used as weapons will likely increase in 2025. Past incidents show our enemies are aware of our vulnerabilities, making UAS a tempting tool for those with harmful intentions.
John Halinski
CEO of SRI Group
Editorial Board Member, Homeland Security Today
Drone Attacks on Infrastructure
2024 saw drones used for both positive and negative purposes. They’ve transformed warfare and disaster response. However, I worry about their potential to target the electrical infrastructure, leading to devastating consequences.
Our critical infrastructure relies heavily on electricity, and drones could effectively carry out attacks. Existing infrastructures, like transformers and power lines, are particularly vulnerable. We must be proactive and invest in measures to secure our electrical grid against such threats.
Dr. Mitchell E. Simmons
Lieutenant Colonel, U.S. Air Force (retired)
Associate Dean at the National Intelligence University
(The author’s views do not reflect those of the National Intelligence University or the U.S. Government.)
Rising UAS Threats
As we forecast threats for homeland security, we must also reflect on contributing factors from previous years. The relaxed border security has allowed individuals, including potential terrorists, to enter the U.S. and engage in criminal activity.
Moreover, the rise in drone activity indicates a substantial gap in our ability to detect and respond to threats. Despite recent advancements, Congress has not provided necessary resources for local law enforcement to tackle drone threats effectively. Immediate action is essential.
While recent drone use hasn’t posed a direct threat, they have been employed for illegal activities like drug trafficking or surveillance over critical sites. As we move forward, effective airspace management and action from Congress is crucial.
Drones also offer valuable tools for public safety; “Drone as a First Responder” programs are emerging to enhance law enforcement capabilities.
Chief Charles L. Werner (Emeritus-RET)
Director, DRONERESPONDERS Public Safety Alliance
