Unlocking India’s Global Ambitions: The Crucial Role of the US in New Delhi’s Strategy

Much of the talk in international relations involves words—statements from governments, comments from officials, and the diplomatic language of envoys. However, too often, these words lead to little action. Researching foreign policy can feel like wading through vague documents that make grand claims but rarely translate into real change.

Words can be tricky because they are hard to measure. For instance, how do we know if two countries are truly “willing to cooperate”? What does it even mean for relations to be “friendly”? The ambiguity in language creates challenges in interpretation, unlike data, which gives us clear, quantifiable information.

So, what if we solely focus on the numbers? Let’s explore India’s global relations through data.

One key area is international trade. From 2006 to 2022, China has been India’s top trading partner, accounting for about 15-17% of India’s imports. This is somewhat paradoxical, as China is also seen as India’s primary rival.

After China, the United States, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Switzerland make up India’s next largest sources of imports. Notably, Iraq and Russia have also become important, particularly for crude oil imports since 2022.

Petroleum crude is India’s most significant import, making up 16-31% of total imports from 2012 to 2022. This shows two crucial points: India heavily relies on imported crude oil, with 82% of its petroleum sourced from abroad, and the largest chunk of its energy imports does not come from China. Instead, the Gulf states and Russia play a vital role.

Natural gas is another critical import; about 45% of what India uses comes from abroad, primarily via liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments. Qatar is the leading supplier. This highlights the Middle East’s strategic importance for India’s energy needs.

Interestingly, India’s immediate South Asian neighbors, like Sri Lanka and Nepal, are not major trade partners. While they look to India for imports, India itself does not heavily trade with them. Their geographical closeness does impact India’s security and regional strategy, though.

When we look at military imports, things get more complex. While Russia used to be the primary source of arms for India, other countries, including the United States and France, have recently taken a larger share. For example, from 2018 to 2022, 45.1% of India’s arms came from Russia, but that percentage is gradually declining.

What the numbers can’t show is that arms purchases often come with long-term maintenance and support contracts. Even as India diversifies its arms suppliers, over 80% of the existing military equipment in India is still of Russian origin.

Now turning to exports, the U.S. has become a significant destination for Indian goods, making it India’s second-largest trade partner after China. India enjoys a positive trade balance with the U.S., underscoring the importance of this relationship.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is another crucial area for understanding India’s interests. The top source of FDI into India is Mauritius, where many Indian firms are registered. However, this setup often indicates a reluctance to invest directly within India, highlighting a possible weakness in its investment climate.

The Indian diaspora also plays a huge role in the economy. With over 10 million Indians living in the U.S. alone, they contribute significantly through remittances. This diaspora is economically diverse, with wealthier individuals in the U.S. in contrast to poorer laborers in the Middle East.

Ultimately, the regions that matter most to India include the U.S., Europe, China, Russia, and the Middle East, with Southeast Asia following closely. The U.S., in particular, stands out due to its numerous contributions to India’s economy and security framework.

Moreover, India approaches its relationship with the U.S. without the tensions seen with China, making future cooperation likely. Despite challenges, India’s ties with the U.S. are likely to grow even stronger in the coming years.