Unlocking Insights: GIEWS’ Latest Report Reveals Key Insights on Food Security in Iran

Food Security Situation in Iran: Insights and Trends

Recently, the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) released a report that sheds light on food security in Iran, covering agricultural conditions, crop forecasts, and livestock situations.

Impact of Dry Weather on Wheat Production

Wheat plantings typically happen from September to November, but the winter season from December to February started with much lower rainfall than usual. This has negatively affected crop yields. Although some regions, like Khuzestan, saw improved rainfall in March, the overall predictions suggest low precipitation in May, which may lead to production shortfalls.

Wheat harvest in the southern provinces began in mid-April. The northern areas, such as Golestan, will start harvesting later in June. To support local farmers, the government increased the wheat procurement price by 17%, now set at IRR 20,500/kg for soft wheat and IRR 21,000/kg for durum wheat. However, high costs for inputs like seeds and fertilizers remain a challenge.

Current Rice Planting

Planting for rice is ongoing in key regions like Gilan and Mazandaran, with expectations to conclude by June 2025. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) noted no desert locusts were found in March and doesn’t anticipate numbers rising significantly before mid-May.

Optimistic Cereal Production Estimates for 2024

Cereal production for 2024 is forecasted at 26 million tonnes, about 22% above average. This boost results from favorable rainfall and government support, including subsidies, low-interest loans, and high wheat procurement prices.

Wheat Import Projections

For the 2024/25 marketing season, wheat import needs are projected at 1.3 million tonnes, which is less than half the five-year average. This reduction is primarily due to the solid wheat harvest in 2024 that replenished stocks. However, projections indicate that imports may rise for the 2025/26 period to cover expected deficits.

Rise in Cereal Prices

In 2025, cereal retail prices have surged. The fixed currency rate for importing essential goods has remained at IRR 285,000 per USD, which is about 40% of the market rate that was IRR 750,000 per USD in December 2024. Despite this, the average price of wheat flour in Tehran rose by 18% year-on-year as of March 2025. Retail rice prices showed an even more significant increase, up nearly 60% from the previous year.

Conclusion

Understanding these agricultural trends is crucial for assessing food security in Iran. With ongoing weather impacts and fluctuating prices, farmers face numerous challenges, but government support may offer some relief.

For more in-depth information, check the recent GIEWS report here.

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Iran,GIEWS,The Global Information and Early Warning System,food security