This wild-card week in the NFL is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in recent years. Traditional powerhouses are in the mix, but the AFC doesn’t show any clear favorites, and the NFC matchups are tightly contested too.
Looking at the betting scene, there’s potential value in the game spreads and totals. To analyze this, I created an NFL Projection Model that uses detailed play-by-play data to forecast game outcomes. It considers factors like the opponent and situations where teams may be less focused, known as “garbage time.” This model helps me generate expected points per game for both offense and defense.
By applying these figures, I can establish expected spreads and totals for each game. For instance, in the matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars, my model actually favors the Jaguars by one point, which contrasts with the betting odds on BetMGM. Additionally, it suggests that the total points scored might be lower than what BetMGM estimates.
Moreover, the model anticipates the Carolina Panthers will cover against the Los Angeles Rams and the Chicago Bears will cover versus the Green Bay Packers.
Recent statistics also support this unpredictability. In the past two seasons, wild-card round games have seen several upsets, with underdogs winning roughly 45% of the time. Fans on social media have taken notice, with many sharing their predictions and favorite picks ahead of the games.
Experts suggest keeping an eye on the key players from each team. Their performance could tip the odds significantly. For example, if a quarterback tends to perform well under pressure, that insight could enhance bets on their games. As the wild-card round approaches, the excitement builds for thrilling matchups and unexpected turns.
So, whether you’re a die-hard fan or just tuning in for the excitement, this week promises to deliver plenty of action and surprises.
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NFL, Sports Betting
