As the world inches closer to critical temperature limits set by the Paris Agreement, scientists are working hard to find a reliable way to measure global warming. Nearly 200 countries pledged in 2015 to keep temperature rises below 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to preindustrial times. However, there’s no established method to determine when we actually cross that dangerous threshold.
To tackle this challenge, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) formed a team of experts last year. Their goal is to create a more accurate way to assess global warming. In their latest report, they estimate that warming is currently between 1.34 and 1.41 degrees Celsius above the average from 1850 to 1900.
Chris Hewitt, director of climate services at WMO, explains that while 1.5 degrees is mostly viewed as a long-term average, the agreement lacks specific guidelines on how to measure this warming effectively. The threat, experts warn, is that using outdated metrics can delay our response to climate change. “If we only look back, we might realize we’ve exceeded 1.5 degrees only years after it happens,” Hewitt said.
Discussions about developing better measurement methods escalated ahead of global climate talks in 2023, especially as monthly averages started to show signs of crossing the threshold. Richard Betts, a climate impact researcher from the U.K.’s Met Office, noted that reaching the 1.5-degree mark could trigger significant responses from policymakers and the public. “We want clarity,” he said, stressing that differing reports on warming levels could lead to confusion.
The expert team is exploring various new approaches as part of their efforts. For instance, one method averages temperatures over the last decade while making projections for the future. Their findings show that the global mean temperature was 1.55 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels in 2024, marking an increase from 1.45 degrees in 2023.
Despite these alarming numbers, experts emphasize that a single year’s data does not spell doom for the Paris targets. However, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo described the current situation as a wake-up call, reminding us that rising temperatures pose greater risks to our lives, economies, and the environment.
According to a 2023 Pew Research survey, almost 70% of people worldwide view climate change as a significant threat. This growing concern suggests that many are becoming more aware of the impacts of global warming and the urgency for government action. Engaging with this topic is crucial as society grapples with its future in a warming world.
For further insights on climate change, check out the WMO’s State of Climate report.
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