The AFC side of the 2025 NFL playoffs has been quite decisive so far. In the Wild Card games, the average victory margin was 19.3 points, with home teams dominating their opponents. This trend might influence your picks for the Divisional Round. The Kansas City Chiefs are favored to beat the Houston Texans by 8.5 points, while the Baltimore Ravens have taken the favorite spot against the Buffalo Bills, despite opening as underdogs. Keep an eye on Ravens receiver Zay Flowers, who has been sidelined with a knee injury.
In the NFC, the Detroit Lions are giving 9.5 points to the Washington Commanders, and the Philadelphia Eagles are 6-point favorites over the Los Angeles Rams. So far in the playoffs, underdogs have had a mixed record, going 3-3 against the spread. Understanding these dynamics can help you make informed game picks.
The SportsLine model, known for its accuracy, has been on a hot streak this season. It has a 67% success rate on top-rated NFL picks and is projecting outcomes for every matchup in the Divisional Round.
Saturday, Jan. 18
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5, 41.5)
Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Channel: ABC/ESPN
In their last meeting (Week 16), the Chiefs won and covered the spread. Kansas City has a solid playoff record with Patrick Mahomes, and the Texans have struggled on the road in the postseason. The last six matchups saw high-scoring action, averaging over 60 points.
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-9, 55.5)
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Channel: FOX
Last week, rookie Jayden Daniels led the Commanders to a road playoff win. Despite their success, they face a Lions team that has struggled at home. Jared Goff’s remarkable performance in recent games adds to the intrigue of this matchup.
Sunday, Jan. 19
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 43.5)
Time: 3 p.m. ET
Channel: NBC
The Eagles won their previous matchup against the Rams in Week 12. However, the Rams have been strong lately with Matthew Stafford at quarterback. Historically, these teams have had low-scoring postseason games.
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (+1, 51.5)
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS/Paramount+
The Ravens won their earlier game against the Bills this season. Baltimore’s defense has been impressive recently, allowing the fewest points in the league. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson’s rushing abilities add another exciting dimension to this matchup.
Check out this related article: Divisional Round NFL Injury Update: Zay Flowers ‘Doubtful’ Against Bills, David Montgomery’s Exciting Return!
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