Unlocking the Future: How Stricter Climate Policies Could Preserve Twice as Much Glacial Ice

An international team of scientists recently published a striking study in Science about glaciers and climate change. They found that if global temperatures rise to 2.7°C above pre-industrial levels, only 24% of glacier mass will survive. In contrast, limiting warming to 1.5°C—an aim of the Paris Agreement—could help retain 54% of the glaciers.

The research involved 21 experts from ten countries and examined over 200,000 glaciers worldwide. The scientists modeled different temperature scenarios, predicting how much ice would be lost over thousands of years.

Glacier Loss: A Grim Reality

The results are eye-opening. Even if global temperatures stabilize today at around 1.2°C, we could still see a 39% reduction in glacier mass, contributing over 10 cm to rising sea levels. Each additional 0.1°C increase in temperature leads to a loss of about 2% of glacier ice. Dr. Harry Zekollari, a leading author of the study, emphasizes, “Every fraction of a degree counts.” Our choices today will shape the future of our glaciers.

Dr. Lilian Schuster, another co-author, highlights that glaciers respond slowly to climate changes, meaning the scale of warming we’ve already experienced may be underappreciated. The situation is worse than it may seem from what we can see in the mountains.

Consequences Beyond Sea Levels

Glacier loss affects more than just sea levels; it threatens freshwater supplies, raises the risk of natural disasters, and impacts ecosystems and tourism that rely on glaciers. These changes have lasting effects across generations, emphasizing the urgent need for effective climate policies.

The Situation in Scandinavia

The glaciers in Scandinavia, especially in Svalbard, are facing severe threats. Regine Hock, a Glaciology Professor at the University of Oslo, states that even without further warming, about two-thirds of ice in Scandinavia and nearly half in Svalbard could disappear. This loss could drastically alter river flows and energy production in the region.

Global Awareness and Action

To raise awareness about glacier preservation, the United Nations has designated 2025 as the International Year of Glaciers’ Preservation. Starting that year, March 21 will be recognized as World Day for Glaciers. Events are already planned, including exhibitions at the Natural History Museum in Oslo, designed to educate the public about climate change through the lens of historical events like the Little Ice Age.

Conclusion

This study not only highlights the immediate need for climate action but also serves as a crucial part of the UN’s efforts to combat climate change. For further reading, you can access the complete study here.

In the face of these findings, it’s clear we need to reconsider our approach to climate action. The glaciers are telling us a story we can’t afford to ignore.

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