Unlocking the Power of Forests: How Countries Can Leverage Nature to Achieve Essential Emission Reductions

Recent research reveals that major economies are likely overstating how much carbon their forests absorb. This might allow them to keep using more fossil fuels than they should. This research highlights concerns around Brazil and Australia, pointing out that their methods for counting carbon emissions from forests are too loose. Without better rules, countries could manipulate their reports, leading to misleading national climate assessments.

Scientists still face uncertainty about how carbon sinks, like forests, will react to climate change. For now, many nations are making their own assumptions and including these figures in climate plans due by 2035 for the next U.N. climate talks in Brazil.

According to Climate Analytics, a policy group evaluating these plans, overly positive assumptions about forest carbon absorption are masking the true scale of necessary fossil fuel emissions cuts. This could hide efforts needed to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, as promised in the 2015 Paris Agreement.

For instance, Australia’s reliance on its forests to reduce carbon footprints has led to a reduction in real emissions cuts by about 10%. Similarly, Brazil plans to reduce emissions by up to 67% by 2035 but hasn’t specified how much forests will contribute to this goal. This vague targeting may allow Brazil’s energy emissions to actually double.

Claudio Forner, one of the research authors, highlighted that relying on forest estimates allows emissions to grow if not offset by real cuts in energy emissions. He emphasized the importance of having clear rules regarding how much CO2 forests can absorb. Without these, countries may manipulate their numbers to appear more compliant with climate goals.

While forests play a vital role in reducing emissions, their carbon absorption should be monitored separately from energy and industrial emissions. The complexity of how forests absorb carbon isn’t fully understood, and they can release carbon back into the atmosphere through fires and other natural events. Additionally, climate change and human activity may weaken forests’ ability to absorb CO2.

Forner stressed the uncertainty in predicting how effective carbon sinks will be in the future, warning that if assumptions about growth are incorrect, countries could face major carbon deficits. Climate Analytics estimates this uncertainty could lead to an additional 3 billion metric tons of CO2 emissions—equivalent to Europe’s annual emissions.

Concerns about discrepancies in how different countries account for land use are also growing. U.N. experts point out that this misalignment could account for about 15% of global emissions. An earlier report indicated that reconciling these methods will give countries less time than previously thought to achieve net-zero emissions.

For more information about the complexities of carbon absorption and climate change policies, you can refer to [Climate Analytics](https://climateanalytics.org/) and [U.N. climate reports](https://www.un.org/en/climatechange) for ongoing updates.

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climate change, emissions, forests, Brazil, Australia