In August 2025, President Trump described Washington, D.C., as plagued by “violent gangs and bloodthirsty criminals.” He announced plans to federalize the city’s police force and deploy National Guard members. But there’s a contradiction here: federal crime data shows violent crime in D.C. has dropped to its lowest level in three decades.
Washington’s Mayor, Muriel Bowser, stated, “We are not experiencing a spike in crime. In fact, we’re watching our crime numbers go down.” Despite this, a 2024 Washington Post poll revealed that 65% of residents believed crime is a serious problem. This perception remains, even as official crime stats show improvements.
In 2023, the city did see its highest number of homicides since the 1990s and a notable rise in carjackings. However, according to the Justice Department, these trends reversed by 2024. Bowser criticized Trump’s portrayal of D.C. as “hyperbolic” and “unsettling.”
Public perception can often misalign with reality. Jeff Asher, a crime data analyst, noted that many Americans tend to believe crime is rising, regardless of the data. This is particularly pronounced along partisan lines. According to Pew Research, 68% of Republicans say reducing crime should be a top priority compared to 47% of Democrats.
Asher pointed out that even with falling crime rates, many people feel unsafe. Policymakers should base strategies on data rather than perception, but addressing fear is crucial to helping the public feel secure.
Interestingly, a YouGov poll revealed that 34% of U.S. adults believe murder rates have dramatically increased since 1990, despite data showing a decline in most cities over the years. This disconnect exemplifies the need for better communication about crime trends.
As the debate over D.C.’s safety continues, it serves as a reminder of how perceptions can overshadow reality, and the importance of focusing on both data and the feelings of residents.
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