Unpacking Trump’s Recent Economic Claims: A Comprehensive Fact-Check Guide

Washington — President Trump often claims the U.S. economy is thriving under his leadership. He highlights lower energy and grocery prices, reduced mortgage rates, and claims to have tackled inflation. He believes American consumers are better off than they were during Joe Biden’s presidency.

This month, however, mixed signals about the economy emerged. Consumer confidence dropped to its lowest point since May, while revised data showed a strong 3.8% growth in the second quarter.

In recent surveys by CBS News and YouGov, many Americans described the economy as “uncertain” or “struggling.” Let’s break down the president’s claims about the economy and see how they stand against recent data.

Energy Costs

While President Trump says energy costs are down, the facts tell a different story. The average cost of electricity has actually risen. As of August 2025, residential electricity was 6.2% more expensive than a year ago. Natural gas prices also increased by 13.8%. This contrasts with the overall inflation rate of just 2.9% in August.

The Federal Reserve reported that the average household spent about $282.84 on energy in August 2025, up from $263.44 a year earlier. Experts predict energy prices will continue to rise, driven by higher demand in areas like AI and electric transportation. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, electricity rates could increase by as much as 18% in the coming years.

Gasoline Prices

Trump’s statement about lower gasoline prices holds up if we compare current prices to last year. In August 2024, a gallon of regular unleaded gas cost $3.52, while it dropped to $3.30 in August 2025. However, when Trump entered office, the price was $3.21, suggesting that prices have remained fairly consistent during his tenure.

Grocery Prices

Contrary to Trump’s claims, grocery prices continue to rise. Michael Strain, an economic expert, points out that food prices at home increased by 0.6% in August alone. Overall, they were up 2.7% from August 2024 to August 2025. For instance, ground beef jumped from $5.55 to $6.32 per pound in just seven months. While some prices, like eggs, have fallen, most food costs are still climbing.

Strain noted that grocery price inflation is slowing but is still an issue. Even if prices rise at a slower rate, families feel the pinch when they shop.

Mortgage Rates

Trump is correct that mortgage rates have dipped. In January, they were 7.04%, and they fell to 6.26% in September. This decline is a relief for some homebuyers, though purchasing a home remains a challenge for many due to overall affordability issues. It seems the hoped-for buyer’s market is still out of reach for many Americans.

Inflation Status

The president’s assertion that inflation has been defeated is misleading. The Consumer Price Index rose 2.9% in August, indicating that inflation is still a reality. Economists highlight that inflation is being influenced by tariffs and a recovering economy. Households expect inflation rates to stay above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, raising concerns about future costs.

The Stock Market

When it comes to the stock market, Trump is right: it has reached new heights in his second term. The S&P 500 saw 28 all-time highs this year, while the Dow Jones also achieved record numbers. However, fluctuations arise during tariff discussions, indicating that all is not steady.

Manufacturing Employment

While U.S. factory production was up 0.9% in August, manufacturing jobs have actually declined since Trump took office. Despite the administration’s confidence, job numbers show a loss, with 12,000 manufacturing jobs cut in August alone. Higher tariffs may lead to increased costs for manufacturers, potentially impacting job growth negatively.

Wage Growth

Pleasingly, wage growth for blue-collar workers has seen improvement. In the early months of Trump’s administration, real wages rose by 1.7%. However, this growth doesn’t extend to white-collar workers, who are facing stagnant wages that lag behind inflation.

In summary, while President Trump makes strong claims about the economy, the reality is more nuanced. Many Americans feel the pressure of rising costs and uncertainty despite some positive trends. As always, it’s essential to stay informed and critically assess economic claims.

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