Unpacking Trump’s Trade Deficit Claims: Are His Numbers on Canada, Mexico, China, and the EU Really Accurate? | CNN Politics

President Donald Trump has long made bold claims about the trade deficits the U.S. has with other nations. His assertions have often served as a basis for his tariff policies. However, recent data from the federal government sheds light on the inaccuracies in Trump’s figures.

In the past, figures for 2023 and early 2024 demonstrated that Trump’s statements about trade deficits with countries like Canada, Mexico, China, and the European Union were significantly inflated. The Department of Commerce has now released complete statistics for 2024, allowing for a clearer picture of the actual deficits.

To recap, a trade deficit occurs when the U.S. imports more goods and services than it exports to a specific country. While Trump often frames deficits as financial losses, it’s important to understand that a trade deficit doesn’t equate to a loss in resources; it reflects economic interactions that can benefit both nations involved.

For instance, the U.S. has a trade deficit with Canada mainly because it imports a substantial amount of affordable Canadian heavy crude oil. This oil helps keep gas prices low for American consumers.

Trump has implemented 25% tariffs on many products from Canada. He has claimed that the U.S. faces a staggering “$200 billion” deficit with Canada, describing it variously as a subsidy or a loss. However, the new federal statistics reveal that the actual deficit in 2024 stood at $35.7 billion, a decrease from $40.6 billion in 2023.

If we focus only on the goods trade and overlook services, the deficit with Canada was $70.6 billion in 2024, a slight dip from $72.3 billion the previous year.

Regarding Mexico, Trump has also imposed a 25% tariff on imports. He mentioned a deficit of “$350 billion” with Mexico in a recent interview. Again, this number is far from accurate. The actual deficit in goods and services trade for 2024 was $179 billion, up from $162.1 billion in 2023.

Specifically for goods trade, the deficit with Mexico was $181.5 billion in 2024, increasing from $161.4 billion the previous year.

Trump has similarly targeted China, claiming in a recent interview that the U.S. has a deficit of “over $1 trillion” with the country. This figure is an exaggeration as well. According to the new statistics, the deficit with China in 2024 was $263.3 billion, which is an increase from $252.1 billion in 2023.

It’s worth noting that the 2024 deficit in goods alone with China reached $295.2 billion, rising from $278.7 billion in 2023. Trade deficits are influenced by various factors beyond just presidential policies.

Trump has also criticized the European Union, claiming the U.S. has a deficit of “$350 billion” or “$300 billion” with them. However, the actual figures reveal a different story. In 2024, the deficit with the EU amounted to $161.1 billion, which was up from $125.1 billion in 2023.

When focusing solely on goods trade, the deficit with the EU for 2024 reached $236.7 billion, up from $201.6 billion in 2023. While Trump’s claims about the EU deficit are somewhat closer to reality compared to his claims about Canada, Mexico, and China, they still fall short of the truth.