Scientists are now saying that an asteroid named 2024 YR4 has a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032. This is its highest projected impact probability to date, according to the New York Times.
2024 YR4, first spotted in December, measures between 130 to 300 feet long. It will pass remarkably close to our planet in 2032.
While this probability sounds scary, astronomers note that the risk remains low. However, 2024 YR4 is now considered the biggest asteroid recently predicted to collide with Earth.
The asteroid’s risk has jumped from earlier estimates of 1.3%, reported in January. Damaging effects could be significant, especially since it now poses more threat than the feared Apophis asteroid, which once had a 2.7% chance of impacting Earth in 2029—but that was later deemed false.
Despite being smaller than Apophis, 2024 YR4 could still bring destruction depending on where it enters the atmosphere. Experts believe a direct hit could significantly damage a city, but it wouldn’t wipe out a whole country.
Mark Boslough, a physicist at Los Alamos National Laboratory, commented on the uncertainty of the asteroid’s density, which affects the energy it would unleash if it strikes Earth.
Time is of the essence, as the asteroid will soon hide behind the sun in April, making it harder for Earth-based telescopes to track it until 2028.
Currently, much of 2024 YR4’s path is over the ocean, but it could pass close to major cities such as Bogotá, Lagos, and Mumbai. If it turns out to be at the upper end of its size range and strikes land, it could cause severe damage. Michael Aftosmis, an expert in asteroid risk, noted that a larger impact could be catastrophic.
Should a 300-foot version of 2024 YR4 hit solid ground, it might create a crater up to two-thirds of a mile across. The resulting explosion would be massive, potentially causing buildings to collapse and sending debris flying.
In short, while 2024 YR4 poses a challenge, there is still much that scientists need to learn. The coming years will be crucial in understanding its true threat.
