There’s a looming threat called Disease X. It sounds like something from a science fiction movie, but health experts believe it’s a real possibility. The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that it’s not about ‘if’ it will happen, but ‘when’. This unknown pathogen could lead to a pandemic far worse than COVID-19.
Disease X is a term the WHO created in 2018. It signifies a yet-to-be-identified infectious agent capable of causing widespread illness. The concern here is that any known, unknown, or newly discovered pathogen can spark a catastrophic outbreak. Factors like climate change, interactions between humans and animals, global travel, and social unrest increase the risk of the next pandemic.
Experts estimate there’s a 25% chance of another outbreak similar to COVID-19 in the next decade. While predicting the exact pathogen and its impact is difficult, the fact remains that with human behaviors, outbreaks are inevitable. Sadly, the world is still underprepared for this reality. Gavin Yamey, a global health expert, says we need to do more to prepare for future pandemics, which could have severe consequences.
Pandemics can wreak havoc not only on health but also on economies. History has shown us that pandemics can lead to greater economic disruption than conflicts. For example, the COVID-19 pandemic affected travel, manufacturing, and retail industries worldwide.
Past Pandemics
Disease outbreaks are nothing new. The Spanish Flu from 1918 infected about one-third of the world’s population at that time and resulted in millions of deaths. Similarly, the HIV epidemic has claimed around 40 million lives since the 1980s. Today, other diseases like monkeypox (Mpox) and various strains of influenza are also raising alarms globally.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the U.S. has noted the current risk from H5N1, a bird flu strain, is low but could increase with changing seasons. Cases of Mpox have surged in Africa, illustrating that new disease challenges continue to emerge.
Economists warn that widespread outbreaks can destabilize economies. They emphasize that the focus should be on prevention and readiness, rather than only reacting to crises after they happen. The WHO and the World Bank stress the need for significant annual investments in pandemic preparedness, especially for low and middle-income countries, to help mitigate future risks.
To prepare for future outbreaks, enhanced public health systems are essential. This includes testing, contact tracing, and providing financial support for people in quarantine. Investment in vaccines and treatments is crucial too. The WHO has called for $31.1 billion each year from governments and donors to enhance pandemic responses globally, but raising these funds presents a challenge.
Despite the lessons learned from COVID-19, many countries are not investing enough in preparing for the next pandemic. The recent outbreak of Mpox in Africa highlights the difficulties of securing resources and vaccines needed to combat the disease efficiently.
Rich countries have often been criticized for their lack of urgency in aiding poorer nations during health crises. Past outbreaks, such as Ebola, serve as reminders of how slow and inadequate international assistance can be.
Vaccine development is a key strategy for managing pandemics. The rapid creation of COVID-19 vaccines saved millions of lives, showcasing the importance of preparedness. Tackling the distribution of vaccines fairly is equally essential, as high-income countries saw far better access than low-income nations during the COVID-19 rollout.
As the world slowly recovers from COVID-19, we must not forget the lessons it taught us. Experts stress the importance of proactive measures to prevent future pandemics. This includes investing in early detection systems, vaccine development, and ensuring equitable resource distribution. The next pandemic could be even more devastating if we don’t act now.
