Tomorrow, the African Union’s Peace and Security Council will hold its 1344th session to discuss how climate change affects the crises in the Lake Chad Basin and the Sahel. This is a critical meeting that highlights how environmental issues overlap with security concerns.
Nigeria’s Permanent Representative, Nasir Aminu, will kick off the session, followed by key statements from various representatives. This includes leaders from the Lake Chad Basin Commission and ECOWAS, emphasizing the shared responsibility of regional powers to address these crises.
The Council has focused on the link between climate and security for several years now. Since 2016, it has held over 18 sessions that examine how climate change amplifies existing vulnerabilities. This forthcoming meeting is unique, as it will specifically address the Lake Chad Basin and Sahel rather than broader discussions.
The situation in these regions is complicated. Environmental stresses, such as the shrinking of Lake Chad, are deeply intertwined with social and political issues. Historically, the lake’s surface area has declined by nearly 90% since the 1960s, impacting local communities who rely on fishing and farming. As climate change increases the severity and frequency of floods and droughts, resources become scarcer, leading to competition and conflict.
According to the African Climate Risk Assessment, the Sahel is particularly vulnerable, experiencing temperature rises at 1.5 times the global average. With 60-80% of its population dependent on farming and pastoralism, climate shifts can spark disputes over land and water. Extremist groups seek to exploit these tensions, drawing in those facing hardship.
Governance plays a crucial role here. The Peace and Security Council stresses that weak state institutions allow tension to grow. Without the ability to regulate resource use or solve disputes, communities can turn to violent solutions. Rebel groups take advantage, promising order and livelihoods in places where the government fails.
Mobility adds another layer of complexity. Traditional movement for resources has shifted into conflict zones, causing local clashes. Climate refugees seeking safety contribute to urban pressures, often leading to more instability.
These dynamics feed off each other. For instance, insecurity disrupts agriculture, which in turn creates more poverty and instability, making it harder to escape the cycle. The effects of climate change and conflict become self-reinforcing, requiring innovative and effective governance solutions.
On a positive note, the African Union has developed frameworks aimed at addressing these intertwined challenges, like the Climate Change and Resilient Development Strategy. However, questions remain about how effectively these policies will be implemented. The upcoming session may provide fresh insights and reaffirm the need for cooperation among member states to tackle these pressing issues.
Ultimately, as it meets, the Council is expected to express serious concern about the security situation and emphasize the urgent need to integrate climate indicators into conflict prevention strategies. This approach could shape the future of peace and security in these affected regions.
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Lake Chad Basin,Climate Change and Natural Disaster,2026,Mali and Sahel
