Seventy degrees in February? That was the reality for folks in Albuquerque last week. It’s part of what’s turning into one of the warmest and driest winters New Mexico has ever seen.
According to Joe Galewsky, a professor at The University of New Mexico, two main factors are causing these unusual conditions: a La Niña pattern in the Pacific Ocean and a surprisingly warm atmosphere. “La Niña pushes storms away, leaving the Southwest dry,” he explains. “This year, it’s warmer than usual, which is unusual.”
Recent data shows that New Mexico and nine other states in the West just had their warmest November to January in 131 years. Temperatures in the southern Rockies this winter ran 4 to 6 degrees above average. When storms did hit, rain fell instead of snow at higher elevations, speeding up snowmelt.
Last winter (2024-25) was the driest on record, with the lowest snowpack ever noted. This month, more reports indicate a similar trend. Four weather stations in Arizona and New Mexico recorded record-low snow water equivalent. For instance, the Santa Fe station melted out 47 days earlier than usual, which is a new record.
“We are in unprecedented times,” Galewsky remarks.
The snowpack’s importance cannot be overstated. It acts like a natural reservoir for New Mexico’s water supply. As Galewsky points out, “Snowmelt from our mountain ranges feeds major rivers and contributes to water projects for cities like Albuquerque and Santa Fe. When we don’t have snow, alternative storage options are limited.”
The Rio Grande system’s reservoir storage was at its fourth-lowest level in 45 years by December 2025. This may result in reduced agricultural water releases, forcing irrigators to rely on groundwater sooner than expected. This situation puts extra stress on aquifers that are already struggling, particularly affecting the San Juan–Chama Project.
New Mexico’s water scenario is different from California or the Pacific Northwest, where winter rain is common. Our state gets a majority of its rain during the warm summer monsoon. A lack of winter snowfall means that rivers and reservoirs may struggle through the hot spring months.
“We are using modern-day weather with outdated infrastructure,” Galewsky noted.
The effects reach further than just water supply. The National Interagency Fire Center warns of higher wildfire risks in eastern New Mexico this spring due to the lack of snowcover. Without snow, grasses dry out and become fuel for fires, especially between snowmelt and the summer monsoon.
Residents near wildland areas should think about creating defensible spaces and preparing evacuation plans ahead of fire season, Galewsky suggests.
While La Niña is a natural weather cycle, long-term warming trends are making its impact stronger. Winters in New Mexico have warmed significantly since the 1970s, and every winter since 2013 has been warmer than average. Four of the ten hottest winters on record have occurred since 2000.
“This isn’t just a bad year; it’s becoming the norm,” he said.
Although NOAA models hint at the possibility of an El Niño forming by mid-2026—which may bring wetter conditions next winter—Galewsky cautioned that it wouldn’t solve the water deficit we face.
As spring approaches, water managers and fire agencies are keeping a close eye on the situation. This season could be yet another test of New Mexico’s fragile water resources.
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UNM Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, UNM Earth and Planetary Sciences
