An expedition to the Great Blue Hole in Belize has revealed some concerning findings about tropical cyclones. Scientists studying a sediment core from the bottom of the sinkhole discovered that these storms have increased in frequency over the last 5,700 years. They predict this trend will continue, driven by climate change.
Dominik Schmitt, a geoscientist from Goethe University Frankfurt, and his team identified 694 layers in the sediment, showing a regional increase in storminess in the southwestern Caribbean. According to their research, the warming effects of the Industrial Age are predicted to lead to unprecedented cyclone activity in the coming years.
The Great Blue Hole is an iconic diving spot, made famous by oceanographer Jacques Cousteau decades ago. At 124 meters deep, it’s a natural wonder that supports various marine life while also preserving a unique record of the past. The sediment layers inside the hole act like tree rings, with annual colors that reflect changes in organic content over time.
Extracting sediment samples involves careful drilling. Researchers look at the size and composition of grains to distinguish between layers deposited during calm weather and those from storms, which have larger grains. Schmitt notes that these "tempestites" stand out due to their unique characteristics compared to the smoother, gray-green sediments from quieter periods.
Interestingly, the Great Blue Hole started as a limestone cave. It collapsed during the last glacial period, flooding the cavern and creating the vibrant ecosystem we see today. Over the past 5,700 years, the researchers noted a consistent rise in cyclone frequency, linked to shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone—the region that influences storm paths in the Atlantic.
The study observed fluctuations tied to Earth’s climate cycles, with storms becoming more frequent during warmer times. In the last two decades alone, there have been nine cyclone events, a number that contradicts natural climate patterns.
With their findings, the researchers estimate that about 45 tropical storms and hurricanes could affect the Caribbean this century, far exceeding historical averages. This research highlights the urgent need to understand what these changing patterns mean for coastal communities.
For more detailed insights, you can read the full study published in Science Advances here.
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