Unveiling the Future: How Climate Change May Impact the Distribution of Myracrodruon urundeuva (Aroeira) in the Caatinga

This research focuses on the Caatinga, a unique dry tropical forest in northeastern Brazil. This area is rich in biodiversity and is home to many plants that thrive in its semi-arid climate. One of the standout species in this forest is Myracrodruon urundeuva, commonly known as Aroeira. It’s well-known for its wide distribution and economic importance. However, we still know very little about what affects its growth and distribution.

To find out more, this study employed species distribution modeling (SDM) to analyze the current and possible future habitats of M. urundeuva under different climate change scenarios. The researchers used several models, including GLM, GAM, BRT, and Maxent, to examine occurrence data and climate variables like temperature and rainfall.

The results suggest that M. urundeuva will likely remain stable or even expand in some areas, even under pessimistic climate scenarios such as SSP585. However, certain regions may face habitat loss, which can be attributed to the complex effects of climate change. This highlights the need for targeted conservation strategies.

The study underscores the importance of creating localized action plans to protect M. urundeuva from climate threats. Conservation efforts should focus on identifying stable habitats, helping to ensure the resilience of this important species and the overall health of the Caatinga ecosystem.

Keywords: Dry forest, species distribution models, environmental suitability, future projections, predictive biogeography.

Received: 29 Oct 2024; Accepted: 28 Feb 2025.

© 2025 da Costa et al. This content is open-access under the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY).

Correspondence: Robson Borges De Lima, Universidade Estadual do Amapá, Macapá, Brazil.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of their institutions or the publisher.

Check out this related article: Mainers Unite to Champion Climate Preparedness: A Call to Action for a Sustainable Future

Source link

Dry forest,species distribution models,environmental suitability maps,Future projections,Predictive biogeography