The coming months are a critical test for the Government’s climate commitments, writes Oisín Coghlan. This will be the first Climate Action Plan led by Minister Darragh O’Brien, as the country enters a new Carbon Budget period from 2026 to 2030. The Oireachtas set a legal cap of 200 million tonnes on emissions back in 2022, but recent reports highlight significant gaps the new plan must address.
First, there’s the “adequacy gap.” The combined emissions limits for various sectors, like transport, agriculture, and electricity, exceed the overall budget by 26 million tonnes. This overshoot is over 10%, akin to departments exceeding their financial allocations. Just as finance ministers wouldn’t tolerate overspending, Minister O’Brien needs to ensure his colleagues stay within their limits.
Next is the “policy gap.” The latest analysis from the EPA suggests that if every policy in the existing plan is enacted, emissions would only drop by 23% by 2030. This is far less than the 51% target set by the climate law. There’s also an “implementation gap.” The EPA estimates that current policies might only achieve a 9% reduction.
Fortunately, finding solutions isn’t rocket science. The Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) and University College Cork (UCC) have identified five key actions to reach 90% of the necessary reductions: developing wind and solar energy, reducing car use, electrifying transportation, retrofitting buildings, and decarbonizing industry.
But will Minister O’Brien and his team push these changes through? It’s not just about having a plan; it’s about pursuing bold action against resistance from established interests. Currently, there’s too much focus on alternatives like hydrogen and biogas, which may cater more to current industry powers than to genuine climate goals.
Worryingly, data centers are consuming 22% of our electricity. One proposed data center could use a staggering 10% of our carbon budget’s electricity allocation. If the Government truly means to cut reliance on imported fossil fuels, it should not allow additional gas infrastructure to support these facilities.
Minister O’Brien faces tough decisions ahead. Although he stated support for commercial LNG terminals, he previously expressed that increasing gas usage conflicts with climate law. It seems contradictory for him to advocate for electric transport while simultaneously easing passenger limits at Dublin Airport, potentially worsening ground traffic congestion.
As we approach the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement in December 2025, Minister O’Brien’s actions will determine Ireland’s climate future. It’s now a matter of public accountability and responding to climate justice. The world is watching, and the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Oisín Coghlan is a policy advisor for the Environmental Pillar of social dialogue.
