Urgent Alert: Kosmos 482, the Doomed Soviet Spacecraft, May Crash to Earth Tonight—Find Out When!

This weekend marks the end of the long journey of the Soviet spacecraft Kosmos 482, which has been orbiting Earth for nearly 50 years. Experts believe it could enter our atmosphere as soon as tonight.

The European Space Agency (ESA) has predicted that Kosmos 482 will reenter around 2:26 a.m. EDT (06:26 GMT) on Saturday, May 10, with a possible time window from 10 p.m. EDT on Friday to 7 a.m. EDT on Saturday. This uncertainty spans about 4.35 hours.

Tracking data from Kayhan Space, a Colorado-based tech company, suggests a more precise entry time of 2:28 a.m. EDT (6:28 GMT), with a narrower margin of around 2.4 hours. As Derek Woods, a senior astrodynamics engineer at Kayhan, mentioned, “Atmospheric density at lower altitudes is tricky, leading to wide prediction ranges.”

So, where might Kosmos 482 land? The spacecraft, measuring about 3 feet wide and weighing around 1,091 pounds, could come down anywhere within a vast area stretching from 52 degrees north to 52 degrees south latitude. This zone includes many populated regions, but the ocean is the most likely landing spot, as is often the case with falling space debris. Experts won’t be able to specify the landing area until shortly before reentry, given the unpredictable effects of atmospheric drag.

Astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell from the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics highlighted that the risk of Kosmos 482 harming anyone on the ground is minimal, comparable to the usual “one-in-several-thousand” chance associated with falling space debris.

Kosmos 482 was launched back in 1972 as part of the Soviet Union’s Venera mission aimed at exploring Venus. Unlike its successful siblings, Venera 7 and 8, which made it to Venus, Kosmos 482 malfunctioned during its launch. As a result, it never reached its intended destination and instead entered a long-term orbit around Earth.

This descent craft was built to endure the fierce conditions of Venus’s atmosphere. As it crashes back to Earth, it’s likely to remain intact, traveling at speeds of about 150 mph (242 km/h), according to Marco Langbroek, a space situational awareness lecturer at Delft Technical University.

Kosmos 482’s story is a part of a larger issue. ESA recently reported that there are over 1.2 million pieces of space junk orbiting Earth, many larger than 0.4 inches. With increasingly frequent collisions and uncontrolled reentries—now averaging more than three each day—experts are raising concerns. Many of these objects are from the early days of the space race and include defunct satellites and rocket parts.

Given the growing number of satellites, experts like Woods stress the importance of having controlled end-of-life plans for large objects in space. Investing in debris removal technology is becoming essential as the problem of space junk continues to escalate.

As Kosmos 482 approaches its final descent, it serves as a reminder of the complexities and responsibilities that come with space exploration.

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