Urgent: Earth Approaches a Second Consecutive Year Above 1.5°C Climate Target – What It Means for Our Future

The goal of keeping global warming below 1.5°C feels harder to reach. Recent climate data shows that global temperatures remain alarmingly high. As of April 2025, we are on track to see 2025 rival 2024 as the hottest year on record.

April 2025 was the second warmest April ever recorded, falling just behind April 2024. According to both the European Union’s climate service Copernicus and Berkeley Earth, a nonprofit based in the U.S., global average temperatures hit 1.51°C above pre-industrial levels. This marks the 21st month in the last 22 that temperatures have surpassed the crucial threshold of 1.5°C. In fact, Berkeley Earth reports April 2025’s average was 1.49°C above pre-industrial levels, only slightly cooler than the previous year.

This ongoing heat wave has taken many by surprise. Last year saw a record high average temperature of 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels, crossing the 1.5°C line for the first time in a calendar year. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit temperature increases to well below 2°C, ideally at 1.5°C. As it stands, that goal seems increasingly far-fetched.

Many expected a cooling effect from the La Niña weather pattern to emerge in January, which would bring a drop in temperatures. Instead, global averages have stayed stubbornly high. “The recent La Niña phase hasn’t cooled things down as much as we expected,” said Robert Rohde from Berkeley Earth. As it stands now, there’s an 18% chance 2025 could be the hottest year on record and a 53% chance of being the second hottest. There’s also a 52% likelihood that average temperatures for 2025 will remain above 1.5°C.

The future of 2025’s temperatures will depend on developments in El Niño or La Niña phenomena, Rohde explained. The ongoing high temperatures push the hope of meeting the 1.5°C target into questionable territory. Researchers warn that a series of years above this threshold could mean a bleak outcome for climate goals. A study indicated that maintaining temperatures over 1.5°C for 12 consecutive months could show an 80% chance that long-term warming has already hit that limit.

Richard Allan from the University of Reading expressed his surprise over the relentless warmth. He noted that recent scientific findings have changed how experts view the 1.5°C goal. “Without significant measures to cut emissions over the next two decades, it seems likely we will cross that 1.5°C threshold,” he stated.

However, Allan remains optimistic about the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to under 2°C. “It’s still important to strive for that target,” he asserted.

For more information on global temperatures and climate change, you can check resources like the [Copernicus Climate Change Service](https://climate.copernicus.eu/) and [Berkeley Earth](https://berkeleyearth.org).

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