Urgent Warning: Supervolcano Awakening Could Send Earth into Chaos

A series of strong earthquakes near Campi Flegrei, Italy’s mega volcano, has scientists on high alert about a potential eruption. The area experienced its most powerful tremor in May, registering at magnitude 4.4—the strongest in 40 years. In just six months, over 3,000 smaller quakes have been detected, a huge jump in seismic activity for this region.

Earthquake activity can be an early sign of eruptions as pressure beneath the surface builds up. Imagine a pressure cooker: if the lid becomes too weak, steam can escape violently. Similarly, the tremors might weaken the rock above the volcano’s magma chamber, allowing magma to rise closer to the surface.

Gases released from Campi Flegrei have also surged, raising alarm among geologists. Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) reports that carbon dioxide emissions hit between 4,000 and 5,000 tons daily. Increased gas levels typically indicate that magma is on the move, raising pressure in the volcano.

Currently, scientists say that magma lies just a few miles below the surface. If this pressure keeps rising, an eruption could happen with little warning. According to leading volcanologist Christopher R. J. Kilburn, understanding whether gas emissions result from magma movement or natural rock interactions is essential for predicting an eruption.

The 4 million people living in and around Naples are at risk. An eruption could cause devastating damage—lava flows and ash clouds could destroy homes and disrupt essential services like power and water. Cities such as Naples and nearby Pozzuoli are in the danger zone.

Recent research by Gianmarco Buono from the University of Naples reveals that approximately 80% of the carbon dioxide from the Solfatara crater originates from magma. The remaining 20% comes from natural processes that aren’t necessarily linked to an impending eruption.

Scientists focus on gas emissions, ground swelling, and tremors as critical indicators of volcanic activity. If magma rises, it pushes gases out and builds pressure, which can cause cracks in the earth, leading to eruptions.

Campi Flegrei, meaning "burning fields," is a massive caldera formed by a significant eruption thousands of years ago. Its last major eruption occurred in 1538, but scientists have noted increasing unrest in recent decades. They can’t pinpoint when the next eruption will happen, but the recent surge in activity suggests it might be sooner than later.

Since 2005, the area’s ground has been slowly rising and falling in a phenomenon called bradyseism. This happens as magma and gas build up beneath the surface, causing the ground to swell like a balloon. In Pozzuoli, for instance, the ground has risen about 4.7 feet during this phase.

Researchers using a mechanical failure model, traditionally used in engineering, found that the rock beneath Campi Flegrei is shifting from bending to cracking. This raises the likelihood of an eruption. They noted, “We are seeing a clear progression toward a state where rupture is more likely."

Due to heightened activity, authorities raised the volcano’s alert level from green to yellow in 2012. They have also created evacuation plans for millions living in Naples, but executing them efficiently remains a challenge.

The historical context adds to the worry. Around 40,000 years ago, a catastrophic eruption from Campi Flegrei caused severe global climate changes. If a similar event happened today, the fallout could blanket much of Europe in ash, grounding flights, damaging crops, and disrupting power for millions.

Scientists are keeping a close watch, and public awareness is vital. While the chance of an eruption remains uncertain, the signs of unrest make it essential for those living nearby to stay informed and prepared.

For more details on ongoing geological studies, you can refer to resources from the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology.

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