Watch Out! Kosmos 482: Soviet Spacecraft Poised to Fall to Earth This Week

Kosmos 482, a Soviet spacecraft launched in 1972, is expected to crash back to Earth soon. This mission aimed for Venus but never made it out of low Earth orbit. Over time, it split into four pieces. Now, one of those pieces, likely the lander probe, will re-enter our atmosphere around May 10. NASA suggests that it might survive the re-entry without burning up.

What’s intriguing is that most of our planet is covered by oceans—around 70%—so it’s unlikely to cause significant harm. Stijn Lemmens, a Senior Space Debris Mitigation Analyst at the European Space Agency, pointed out, "It’s much more likely that you win the lottery than get hit by this piece of debris."

The lander itself weighs nearly half a tonne and measures about a meter wide. Built to withstand the harsh conditions of Venus, it has strong heat protection. Experts believe this durability may help it survive its fall to Earth, although the parachute system designed to slow its descent long ago deteriorated in space.

While the risk to people on the ground is low, experts say the capsule could potentially land anywhere between 51.7° north and south latitude, which stretches from northern locations like London to southern regions in South America.

Uncontrolled re-entries of space debris are not rare. Larger spacecraft tend to fall back to Earth weekly, and smaller objects even more frequently. Most burn up upon re-entry, much like China’s Long March 5B booster did over the Indian Ocean in 2022 and the Tiangong-1 space station in 2018.

Space agencies worldwide are currently tracking Kosmos 482 closely. Lemmens emphasized the need for future spacecraft to be designed for safe orbital exits, allowing for controlled re-entries. This approach will ensure better landing predictions and minimize risks to people and the environment while managing the ongoing issue of space debris effectively.

For more insight on space debris and its management, you can check out this BBC article.

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